65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Numerical Studies of Lower Boundary Forcing on Tropical Storm Fay (2008) over Southern Florida Travis L. Washington and Sen Chiao (Twashington2008@my.fit.edu) Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology This study is aimed to investigate the track and intensity changes of Tropical Storm Fay as it moved across south Florida. The maximum wind speed was achieved around 1800 UTC 19 August when the center was near the western side of Lake Okeechobee. The overages of precipitation in the days before landfall left the soil moisture saturated ahead of TS Fay. Yet, the warmer SST over the lake as well as the west coast of Florida may have played a role in maintaining the intensity of the storm. It is our working hypothesis that the storm moved near Lake Okeechobee, and intensified or closely held its intensity due to high soil moisture, and warmer SST over Lake Okeechobee and the west coast of Florida. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with 30, 10 and 3.3 km nested domains to examine our hypothesis. The FNL and the twelfthdegree RTG_SST analysis are adopted as the initial and lateral boundary conditions. The preliminary results demonstrate that the high-resolution simulation is able to recapture the track and deepening rate of the storm while passing through south Florida. The sensitivity experiments of land surface characters and SST in this case illustrate their impacts on the intensity and track of TS Fay during and after landfall. To further investigate the intensity changes experiment using the TC bogus approach were performed. The simulated results demonstrate that using the TC bogus approach the storm can effectively reach the intensity (e.g., low pressure center) as the NHC recorded. Nevertheless, the simulated track may still need to be improved. Poster Session – Page 28
Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurricane Structure Deduced from Airborne-Doppler and HWRF Databases Paul Reasor 1 , Rob Rogers 1 , Sylvie Lorsolo 2 , Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan 1 , John Gamache 1 , Frank Marks 1 (paul.reasor@noaa.gov) 1 NOAA/AOML/HRD, 2 CIMAS/HRD We will present the application of a newly-constructed database of radar-derived winds in hurricanes to the examination of structural characteristics of vertically sheared systems. At present, the database consists of over 150 passes of NOAA aircraft through hurricanes of varying strength. Metrics are developed to quantify the structure, including local shear, vortex tilt, and low-azimuthal-wavenumber wind components. A shear-relative composite analysis is performed, stratified according to large-scale shear magnitude, vortex strength and vortex size. As expected, stronger shear and weaker vortex strength tend to yield greater vortex tilt and a more pronounced quasi-steady vertical velocity asymmetry. Stronger vortices in particular exhibit a preference for tilt to the left of the large-scale, deep-layer shear vector. A similar analysis has been applied to a database of over 100 HWRF ICs with 9 km horizontal grid spacing. The HWRF IC database reproduces many aspects of shear-induced structure revealed in the Doppler database. This analysis is being extended to forecast fields using HRD’s experimental HWRF model at 3-km resolution. These results will be presented at the conference with the aim of clarifying HWRF’s representation of the vortex-shear interaction relative to that depicted by the radar database. Poster Session – Page 29
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
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Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
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Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
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Evaluation and Development of Ensem
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Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
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Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
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Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
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Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
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Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
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Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
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Ocean observations in developing an
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Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
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Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
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2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
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Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93: S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 135 and 136: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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