TABLE OF CONTENTS

Natural Refrigerants Industry Expectations
Air-conditioning
QUESTION: “What will be the market share of Natural
Refrigerant systems in 2012, 2015 and 2020?”
100%
80%
13%
7%
3%
7%
13%
10%
13%
19%
100%
80%
8% 8%
8% 8%
17%
33%
Scale: Total Market Share
more than 50%
20-50%
60%
32%
26%
60%
25%
10-20%
40%
77%
19%
40%
84%
67%
17%
5-10%
20%
38%
23%
20%
25%
0-5%
106
0%
2012
2015
2020
0%
2012
2015
2020
Responses: 31 Responses: 12
Stationary Air Conditioning
The 31 experts for stationary air-conditioning involving
natural refrigerants show the highest scepticism of all
surveyed participants for the medium future, with only
13% believing that NR systems would have a “20% -50%”
share in 2020. However, on the other hand, response rate
for any NR market share higher than 10% nearly triples
from 20% in 2012 to 58% in 2020.
Mobile Air Conditioning
With the highest number of responses (84%) opting for a
“0-5%” market share in 2012, the MAC industry is the most
challenging out of all sub-sectors surveyed. However,
interestingly the industry seems to be optimistic for 2020,
with one-third of respondents believing in a “50% or
higher” market share of NR systems. However, one should
note that results have only limited informative value due
to a very low response rate. Only 12 individuals offering
or planning to offer NR solutions in MAC responded to
the survey, suggesting that as development of CO 2
and
HC systems is largely put on hold.