TABLE OF CONTENTS

Market Forecasts 2012-2020
Market Forecasts 2012-2020
The global industry survey conducted between February
and September 2011 intended, for the first time, to
hear the voice of the HVAC&R industry in general and
the natural refrigerant sector in particular regarding
their market expectations for the coming years. Out of
a total response set of 666 individuals being located in
Europe, 359 were selected for further analysis. This smaller
sub-set encompassed all those already using and/or
planning to use carbon dioxide, ammonia or hydrocarbons
in their products and services. While the first part
of the survey was the same for all respondents, for the
second survey part individuals had to select their field of
expertise among 8 industry sectors: Heating (Residential
& Building), Heating (Industrial & Commercial), Refrigeration
(Domestic), Refrigeration (Commercial), Refrigeration
(Industrial), Refrigeration (Transport), Air Conditioning
(Stationary), and Air Conditioning (Mobile). Transport
refrigeration and domestic refrigeration were excluded
in the final results due to a lack of data accuracy.
All other industry sectors were represented to different
extents, ranging from 12 individuals working on NRbased
Mobile Air Conditioning (MAC) to 129 respondents
for Commercial Refrigeration. The high response
rate for the commercial and industrial refrigeration sectors
(128 responses) confirmed the lead role these two
sub-sectors currently play for the market growth of natural
refrigerants in Europe. Especially the use of CO 2
in
cascade and transcritical supermarket systems, the use
of hydrocarbons in light-commercial installations, and
the use of NH 3
in industrial refrigeration (with CO 2
and
HC gaining market share) are driving the market. On the
other end of the spectrum, only 12 respondents for the
MAC sector testify that where the use of CO 2
and HCs has
been stalled for the near future – largely due to the automotive
industry’s decision to opt for synthetic refrigerant
alternatives – R&D activities inside the industry have
dropped.
The Growth Markets
The sectors with the highest response rates, commercial
refrigeration and industrial refrigeration, are also those
facing the brightest future, according to NR experts. A
clear majority of 65% are sure that natural refrigerant
alternatives in industrial refrigeration will have a higher
than 20% market share in Europe by 2020. The commercial
refrigeration industry is similarly optimistic, where
59% believe that NR systems will make up at least a
fourth of the total market, and 30% targeting a market
penetration of even “50% or higher”. Interestingly, the
commercial refrigeration industry comes from a much
smaller baseline than their industrial counterparts: Only
13% of commercial refrigeration experts say that NR options
currently have a 20%+ market share, whereas 32%
confirm this for the industrial refrigeration market to be
true today. Assumed relative growth rates are hence bigger
for the commercial sector, where the agreement rate
for a 20%+ market share more than doubles for each of
the three periods (2012, 2015, 2020) to get very close to
the 2020 agreement rate in the industrial refrigeration
sector.
The “Open” Markets
Both the residential heating and stationary air conditioning
sector seem to be undecided regarding the market
share to expect for NR solutions in the medium future.
A very regular response pattern can hence be found for
the 31 stationary A/C and 27 residential heating experts
evaluating the situation for 2020. Especially for the latter,
all options, ranging from a “0-5%” to a “50% or higher”
market share, attract the same level of agreement. The
only marked difference between the two industry sectors
is the higher baseline the stationary A/C industry is
building on, with 13% stating that already today natural
refrigerants have a 50%+ market share. However, on the
other hand, the residential heating market will, according
to experts representing it, overtake the stationary
air-conditioning market by 2020 in terms of relative market
shares.
The “Waiting” Markets
The natural refrigerant Mobile Air Conditioning sector
currently faces some of the strongest resistance in the
European Union. Despite the positive frameworks put
into place by the MAC Directive (see page 46), R&D activities
are mostly stalled after years of successfully introducing
market-ready solutions. 84% of respondents
saying there is a close to 0% market penetration of NR
systems today is hence unsurprising. More interesting
are, however, expectations for 2020 when a third of respondents
regard again a “50% or higher” market share
as being possible. This points to the fact that either direct
intervention from legislators or a clear “recommitment”
of the automotive industry in favour of HFC-free systems
would be needed to initiate market growth. Again, it has
to be noted that total responses for the MAC sector were
at a very low level as compared to other industries represented,
hence not allowing for a highly accurate data
analysis. It might, however, serve as a first indication of
the industry’s current situation with no positive signals
sent from the automotive industry to use carbon dioxide
or hydrocarbons. Transport applications outside the car
sector (buses, trains, trucks) still promise growth potential.
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