AIDJEX Bulletin #40 - Polar Science Center - University of Washington

situation for operations. That period corresponds to the beginning of the
AIDJEX experiment, when there were few data on barometric pressure and ice
movement and the ice model used in that simulation did not accurately
represent the yield strength of the ice. Our current work is compared
with another simulation performed for the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental
Assessment Program (OSCEAP), which simulated conditions in the
nearshore Beaufort Sea during the winter of 1976. During that time there
were accurate data on barometric pressure and buoy motions, and the model
was modified to represent accurately behavior of the ice. It has been
shown that this simulation is extremely accurate in representing the motions
of the ice pack throughout the region of interest (Pritchard et al., 1977).
In determining how the AIDJEX model may be used as a short-term ice
forecasting tool, our specific tasks have been to determine (1) how the
National Weather Service weather predictions are input best as driving
forces and how much error is introduced by inaccuracies in the predictions;
(2) what additional motions must be specified from data buoys to provide
necessary boundary conditions and other data: and (3) how to interpret the
velocity, ice state, and strain and stress states to provide necessary
forecasting aid.
The first task is addressed in detail in this report. The second has
been addressed in part by Pritchard and Thomas (1977), who determined how
the boundary velocity subject to random errors with zero mean affects solutions
in the interior. The third is addressed partially by describing the
results of the first two, but it also has been discussed separately by
Coon et al. (1977), who describe another simulation and its application to
prediction of ice conditions on the time and space scales of interest.
This report is taken from an annual report to the NOAA Environmental
ResearchLaboratories describing initialwork to determine how effective the
AIDJEX model would be at short-term ice forecasting along the north slope
of Alaska (Pritchard and Coon, 1977). It is reprinted here to make the
results more available to the general scientific community.
156