Russia's European Agenda and The Baltic States - Defence ...

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RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE BALTIC STATES Consequently, Baltic security is predetermined to a large extent by Russian policy: will Russia adhere to democratic principles and international legal norms, or will she pursue a policy of the former velikaya derzhava (great power) It is noteworthy that during the 1990s NATO aspirations of the Baltic States were rejected vigorously by Russia, which developed the security strategy aimed at ‘seeking strategic influence through power projection and intimidation’. 7 Meanwhile NATO and the EU have modified their strategies towards the opposite direction: by placing much more emphasis on cooperative security regimes based on commonly shared non-military threats, engaging all actors, providing confidence and security building measures (CSBM) and spreading of stability. Thus, the essential strategic problem of the Baltic States has been that they faced the challenge of having to relate to two opposing and incompatible external security strategies directed towards them: a Western cooperative security strategy and a traditional Russian power-based security strategy. 8 Regarding the evolution of the Baltic States, during the last decade they have undergone an epoch-making transformation – from the Soviet-style republics to dynamic Western-type societies. Most important, the three Baltic States avoided being granted a ‘special case’ label, which would be a real danger not only for them but equally for the entire region: it would mean isolation, uncertainty and a grey security zone. In 2004, the Baltic States succeeded in their ultimate strategic goals – they became full-fledged members of NATO and the European Union. Furthermore, they have acquired a status of reliable partners and allies of the West, which provides not merely privileges but responsibilities as well. This implies a dividing line separating two periods of Baltic foreign policy – prior to the membership of the EU and NATO and afterwards. Throughout sixteen years Russo-Baltic relations have changed tremendously – from confrontation to dialogue and cooperation. The Baltic States are seeking to find a modus vivendi with their big neighbour. The expectation prevailing among the Baltic political élites has been that membership of NATO and the EU should make possible the ultimate reconciliation between Russia and the Baltic States and create more solid ground for stable mutual relations in the future. The Baltic countries are already designing their relations with Russia as an integral element of NATO-Russia and EU-Russia partnership and cooperation. It is in the self-interest of the Baltic States to promote a more constructive Russian posture in European security affairs. European and Baltic security can only be assured through integrating Russia into a security community with the rest of Europe. This study argues that ‘high politics’ of the ever-complicated Russo-Baltic relations is over. With the accession of the Baltic States to NATO, the Baltic security dilemma has been removed from the Alliance’s agenda, i.e. the Baltic security question has been ‘desecuritized’ and became a matter of normal routine politics. Yet, tensions do persist in the so-called ‘low politics’. The key contentious areas that top the Russo- Baltic agenda are Russian energy policy in the Baltic States and the sensitive bilateral issues related to Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia and civil and military transit to the Kaliningrad oblast via Lithuania. 8
RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE BALTIC STATES Aims and Objectives The place and the role of the Baltic States in the region and in Europe cannot be assessed without taking into account the context of their relations with Russia. This paper analyses Russia’s approach towards European security architecture and establishes how the Baltic States are seen in this framework. This study seeks to achieve two key aims: • The primary aim is to provide an analysis of Russia’s European agenda in general, and her agenda in the Baltic region in particular. • The secondary aim is to define threats and challenges, as well as prospects, in Russo-Baltic relations. The attainment of these aims should provide Baltic foreign policy makers with new perspectives on the dynamics of Russo-Baltic relations. Seeking to facilitate the achievement of these aims the following objectives are set: • First, to examine Russia’s European policy in the context of global developments and their interplay, including post-9/11 security environment and the dual enlargement of NATO and the EU; • Second, to define the peculiarities of asymmetric relationship between Russia, as a great power, and the Baltic countries, as small states, in relation to the Knudsen model; • Third, to assess to what extent Russia’s foreign policy trends vis-à-vis her ‘near abroad’ manifest themselves in Russo-Baltic interaction; • Fourth, to analyse the role of international institutions and cooperation frameworks in mitigating relations between Russia and the Baltic States and in the changing security regime in the Baltic Sea region; • Fifth, to provide future perspectives for the Baltic States in countering Russiarelated threats and shaping their cooperative relations with Russia. Research Methodology Basic approaches The basic approach of this study is that the reasoning behind foreign and security policies in Russia and the Baltic States is based on two factors - the external environment and patterns of domestic decision making. Any state exercises its foreign policy within the context of the international system. By defining the starting point of this study with Russia and the Baltic States as reference points, two key questions need to be answered: what is the present international system like, and 9
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