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RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE BALTIC STATES Dr Janina Sleivyte is a member of the Defence Policy and Planning Division of the NATO International Staff. She holds doctorates from both Lithuania and the UK, and prior to being seconded to NATO HQ worked for ten years in the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence. iv
Russia’s European Agenda and the Baltic States by Janina Sleivyte Introduction States exist in a certain space, defined by their geography, historical experience and culture. This space is in the process of a constant change, and the dynamics impacts on the political processes of states, their relations with neighbours and their geopolitical orientation. This equally applies to the main subjects of this monograph - Russia and the Baltic States. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has been reshaping her policy. The Baltic States, since the restoration of their independence in 1990, have also been redefining their place in the region and on the continent. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, a number of historical and cultural differences between them notwithstanding, are often not differentiated in the context of international relations but treated as a whole - the ‘Baltic States’. Their common history of the 20th century provides justification for this treatment. Putin’s Russia is a largely authoritarian state with a state directed, although mostly private, economy and a weak civil society. Russia has never developed into a Western European democratic type of state, albeit this chance was given to her many times. Although Russia initially relinquished some of her power as the country fell into disarray following the USSR’s dissolution, she is undergoing recovery and her influence over the world is rapidly increasing, driven the growing need for her energy resources. Having realised her limitations, Putin’s Russia has refused a messianic doctrine and acts within the framework of classical concert of the great powers. This implies that Russia dropped open confrontation with great powers but has not abandoned the ambition of restoring her greatness so as to enable her to challenge the West. Russia probably will never again be a superpower but she can aspire to become a ‘major power of the second rank’ 1 – more important than any of the other European powers because of her size, geo-strategic position and energy riches – the biggest hydrocarbon reserves in the world. Moreover, to underpin her self-esteem, Russia possesses some 2000 nuclear missiles and still remains the only power in the world, which can maintain the balance of mutually assured destruction with the United States. This confirms that Russia is an important player on the European, Asian and global scenes. There is no question that the current Russian foreign policy is the foreign policy driven largely by President Vladimir Putin. Two catchphrases used to describe Putin’s presidency are – ‘pragmatism’ and ‘active diplomacy’. In this context, a key specific 5
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