Russia's European Agenda and The Baltic States - Defence ...

RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE BALTIC STATES
in the UN Security Council over Kosovo and Iran, the unsolved murders of Alexander
Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya, Russia appears to be on a collision course. Even
in the areas where Russia and the West have cooperated closely – against terrorism
and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction – suddenly seem like sources of
confrontation as much as collaboration. A declaration by Russia’s top general that
Russia could withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, portends
the opposite. Clearly, the honeymoon is over, dead and buried. It is hardly the end
of history, but rather continuation of an old and tasking game. Therefore a realistic
reassessment of the relationship is in order. At the same time, the United States and
Europe should avoid a rhetorical confrontation with Russia. Deeds, not words, are
necessary to send a message to the Kremlin that they will continue cooperation with
Russia on the issues of mutual concern, such as anti-terrorism, non-proliferation
and energy. Positive change in Russia can only come from within and it is likely
that economic realities, namely the growth of capitalism in Russia and openness to
the outside world, rather than democratic standards, will be the key drivers for that
change.
Russia’s European Policy
Since Gorbachev unleashed glasnost and perestroika, it was tacitly understood that
Russia’s goal was to become like Europe. However, these hopes have not come true.
Quite the reverse, their increasing interdependence is contributing not to a diminution
of tension, as was initially thought, but to an increased tension. There appeared two
troubling trends in Russian-European relations. Firstly, while Russia and Europe drift
closer to one another in the economic sphere, the two sides’ understanding of basic
democratic values and rule of law continues to diverge. Secondly, Russia finds it more
difficult to defend her interests in the enlarged European Union, as she has to deal
with the more cohesive international organization rather than separate states. Russia
views bilateralism instrumentally, as a way of exploiting her ‘strategic partnerships’
to advance Russian interests in Europe. Therefore Russia seems as eager as ever
to resort to the old tactics of divide-and-rule: even when Putin meets with the EU
as a single entity, he still prefers to do business with the European leaders one-onone,
cutting advantageous bargains with individual EU countries. This particularly
applies to Russia’s relations with Germany: by using its close relations with Berlin
Moscow seeks to develop its ‘strategic partnership’ with the European Union.
Russia’s agenda in Europe concerns the question of the fundamental
orientation of Russia herself, encompassing a specific culture and civilisation. This
largely gives a reasoning for putting ‘Europe first’ in Russia’s foreign policy. In a more
narrow sense, it consists of making Europe instrumental for Russia’s transformation:
it is mainly in Europe that markets and potential investment lie. The European Union
is an indispensable anchor for Russia in Europe. The two key factors that make
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