Russia's European Agenda and The Baltic States - Defence ...

RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE BALTIC STATES
international systemic approach but includes other levels of analysis – the domestic
political and individual levels.
The Knudsen Model
When examining Russo-Baltic relations in neo-realist terms, the author applies the
Knudsen model as a conceptual framework for the analysis. 12 The essence of the
model is to explain ‘the application of political pressure by a great power against its
smaller neighbour’. 13 It should be stressed that smallness of a state is important here
in terms of available resources and capabilities, which have a direct effect on the scope
and domain of a state’s foreign policy. By analysing the security of a small state, one
is dealing essentially with power disparity between great powers and small states.
Thus, a small state can be defined as a state having limited capacity to influence
security interests of, or directly threaten, a great power and defend itself against an
attack by of a great power. 14
In studying power disparity, Knudsen introduces six independent variables,
which characterise relations between great powers and small states.
• Variable 1 – the strategic significance of a small state’s geographic location - is
defined as the predominant elite perception in the nearest great power of the
difference it would make to its security if a small state was to fall in the hands
of their main opponent. From this perspective the security issue linking two
neighbours becomes a question of how the territory of a state can be exploited
by another great power in the execution of sinister designs.
• Variable 2 – a degree of tension between great powers – is the chief dynamic
variable for a small state’s security. The greater is the conflict between great
powers, the greater is strategic importance of a small state to its great power
neighbour and to a neighbour’s great power enemy (rival). 15 Given high
tension, the nearest great power is more likely to respond to ‘apparently
non-conforming small-state action with restrictive measures’, and more
likely to take preventive measures to keep the options for a small state to a
minimum. 16
• Variable 3 – phase of the power cycle – ‘the degree of extroversion in a great
power’s foreign policy’. This should be thought as the ‘sum total of the state’s
resources devoted to external activities’. 17 All great powers go through power
cycles, starting from internal growth to external expansion to overextension
and subsequent decline, and this directly affects their peripheries: pressure
on small neighbours will rise and ebb as cycles change. In the extrovert
phases, not only are small neighbours squeezed, tension is also likely to rise
between a great power and its rivals, further exacerbating the neighbourly
pressures. 18
• Variable 4 – the historical record – gives reference to the history of relations
between a small state and the nearest great power. Trust is essential for the
development of stable relations between states. Historical experience is the
11