Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

10 MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
It is important to recognise that to some extent, all of the above are linked either in
cause or effect. Furthermore many of these major factors are often regarded as being
outside the normal remits of forecasting. However, result from long-term trends
which provide a backdrop to this report. Our overall view on these is as follows:
Globalisation will continue to be driven by the lower costs of the developing
countries and the ageing of populations in the developed world.This will result in an
increasing demand for commodity feedstocks, and for energy – particularly oil and
liquid fuels for transportation, perhaps increasingly derived from gas.
Energy supply – we believe that oil supplies have a potential to peak sometime after
2013 and if this occurs the consequences could be serious for world economic
growth. Some energy prices have already increased dramatically over the past three
years and in the light of such increases renewable energy could be a good long-term
investment.
Growing industrialisation is likely to have environmental impact and result in
increasing expenditure on remedial/preventative measures. However, we note that
there is already some awareness in China that their long-term development cannot be
based on the Western model.
Growing populations in the Middle East could, unless expectations are managed,
result in political change and further fuel political instability.
Disruption – during the last half of the 20th century a major disruption occurred
every five to seven years – it is unlikely that the period 2005–2012 will pass
without another.