Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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MARINE BIOTECHNOLOGY
The UK Foresight Report gives a predicted growth rate “exceeding 10% per annum
over the next three years” (from 2002). BCC Research in 2003 estimated average
growth from 1999 to 2007 as: USA 4.7%, the rest of the world at 6.4% and the total
global growth as 5.9%.
Over-estimation of market growth in the early years of technological development is
a common failing, therefore in our forecasts we have chosen to use an average growth
of 3.8%. In our view it is likely that the anticipated very large market for marine
biotechnology will develop outside the time period of this report. (This makes
marine biotechnology a very interesting long-term ‘investment’ prospect.)
EDUCATION & TRAINING
Education & Training has three primary activities: seafarer training, offshore worker
training and higher education.
We have estimated the market for seafarer training and offshore worker training by
taking published data on throughputs of training establishments, manpower updates
and industry statements.The in the case of seafarers we considered the world fleet
size, manning levels and retirement rates, and developed forecasts based on growth in
vessel numbers taken from our shipbuilding forecast. A similar process has been
undertaken for offshore oil & gas workers with future growth based on the main
sector forecast.
Valuing the ‘market’ for higher education is a more difficult process; an example is
how to clearly separate the education element of universities’ activities from research
activities. At least 241 establishments worldwide offer marine-related courses and our
values are based on estimates of annual student intake and average fees.The forecast is
then based on growth at 3% per annum.
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
R&D occurs to a lesser or greater extent in every marine sector.The three largest are:
• Oil and Gas – where we use the mid point between separate estimates by
Shell and McKinsey.
• Shipbuilding – where claims have been made of 10% of revenues. However, we use
a more cautious 5%.