Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

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48 MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS Although the response will be complex, this will ultimately result in a sustained major increase in oil prices and a huge demand for other energy sources. Figure 5.3: Oil Prices 1996–2004 OTHER ENERGY SOURCES As discussed earlier, we expect a strong growth in demand for natural gas, particularly LNG. Some power generation capacity will have to switch back to environmentally unfashionable coal, possibly sourced from countries such as Australia leading to increased demand for coal carriers. However, ultimately it is likely that nuclear power will have to be resurrected. For Europe, marine renewable energy has prospects for strong growth, particularly offshore windpower, as onshore sites are used up. <strong>Analysis</strong> of prospects in the ‘The World Offshore Wind Database’ suggests a capital spend of nearly $10 billion over the next five years.The immediate growth market is the UK where we forecast 499 turbines will be installed offshore followed later by Germany with 558. Ireland, with its excellent coastal wind regime has prospects for power generation far above its own needs and consequently for exports to the UK. Source: futures.tradingcharts.com Wave and tidal power is an embryonic industry but with good long-term prospects. ‘The World Wave and Tidal Database’ is forecasting the cost of annual installation to reach $150 million by 2006. Here the UK is the market leader, but again Ireland has excellent potential. ENERGY – A LONG TERM VIEW Increasing Energy Prices – There is growing support for the view that oil prices could increase considerably in the early years of the next decade. Unmanaged, this could have a significant impact on global GDP and world trade. Energy Carriers – High oil demand mainly emanating from China has resulted in a surge of orders for tankers.This new capacity will take some time to be fully absorbed by the market and may result in some medium-term oversupply. However, we then expect long-term growth trend to resume.The problem will then become the limits of oil supplies which we believe could occur around 2015.This is likely to reinforce the present strong growth in demand for LNG carriers, increase development of demand for liquid petroleum gas (LPG) carriers and drive a long-term growth in the coal freighters market.
MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS 49 Renewable Energy – This is regarded as a high cost option. However, in light of rising oil, gas and coal prices, past comparisons of the costs of generating energy from renewable sources are probably in the main based on input energy costs for electricity generation now some 50% below present levels. In the long-term, fossil-fuel generation costs can only increase and a likely effect is that the present emphasis on developing renewable energy for environmental reasons will be overtaken by a drive to ensure security of supplies. Investment in renewable energy should be a key factor in national strategy. In light of future shortfalls, investment in energy is a win-win situation.
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Strategic Planning and Development
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Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

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