Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

52 MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Table 6.1: Shipping – World Market
1999–03 2004 2005–09
Africa 7,861 2,693 11,233
Asia 401,104 137,383 573,153
Australasia 6,391 2,189 9,132
E Europe/FSU 22,625 7,749 32,330
Latin America 14,911 5,107 21,308
Middle East 36,610 12,539 52,313
North America 69,912 23,946 99,901
Western Europe 452,186 151,137 637,315
TOTAL (€M) 1011,600 342,743 1436,684
Source: Douglas-Westwood
Figure 6.3: Shipping – Regional Segmentation
2005–2009
Our own view is of a gradual slowing of shipping sector growth and a return to more
normal long-term trends by 2007.
It is difficult to quantify the value of the volume of world seaborne trade in monetary
terms, as figures for trade estimates are traditionally in terms of tonnes or tonne-miles,
and are therefore not comparable with monetary-based statistics for the value of the
world economy.
However, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
estimates that the operation of merchant ships contributes about US$380 billion
(€292bn) in freight rates within the global economy, equivalent to about 5% of total
world trade. 23
In order to check the above we have analysed earnings of some major ship owners.
As an example, Danish shipping has earnings of €15bn of which some $5.3bn comes
from its own ships. Danish ships form about 2% of the merchant fleet by gross
tonnage. If other owners have similar earnings then total world earnings of €243bn
are suggested and this is the figure we use.
There is no simple way of precisely apportioning earnings from shipping to regions
and countries.The complication is that a ship may be operating under the flag of
country A, owned by a company in country B, chartered by a company in country C
and trading between countries D and E.The result is that parts of the associated
business will accrue to A, B, C, D and E.
Source: Douglas–Westwood
Figure 6.4: Shipping Rates 2001–04
6.3 CHINA & THE WORLD MARKET
In 2004, rates for many types of shipping were double the averages achieved during
the 1999–2003 period and in October spot rates for some very large crude carriers
(VLCC) reached five times the long-term average.
Shipowners have responded and the waiting time for new vessel deliveries reached
three years.
Chinese economic growth is the main reason for the remarkable increase in shipping
rates and industry profit. In 2003, China’s imports expanded by 40% in nominal dollar
terms while its exports grew by 35%.
China is in the process of becoming the leading global manufacturing base – ‘the
workshop of the world’ (a position once claimed by the UK). Much is driven by low
wage rates, often 90% below European levels. Since the late 1970s it has managed to
Source: Danish Shipping Association/R.S. Platou
23
‘shipping Facts’ http://www.marisec.org/shippingfacts/worldtradevolume.htm