Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute
Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute
Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute
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MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS<br />
31<br />
4 Methodology & Definitions<br />
4.1 INTRODUCTION<br />
No industrial sector is an isolated economic activity and many of the forecasts for<br />
individual sectors are in reality interlinked. For example:<br />
• Shipbuilding is a key forecast as its results also feed into shipping, marine<br />
equipment and marine IT.<br />
• Shipping itself drives activity in marine commerce and ports.<br />
• Offshore oil & gas expenditure also feeds part of the marine equipment sector.<br />
• Ocean survey is driven by activity in offshore oil & gas and ports, and to a lesser<br />
extent submarine telecoms and marine renewable energy.<br />
Most significantly, virtually all are a function of global economic activity and the<br />
factor having greatest impact on this is political action.<br />
Forecasts of the future are reliant upon knowledge of the present and the past.<br />
In some cases up-to-date values can be difficult to obtain due to the delay in<br />
publication of official statistics.<br />
It is important to note that our forecasts are based on the same processes that we use<br />
in forecasting for our commercial clients – what might reasonably be achieved taking<br />
into account fundamental market drivers and competition in a sector – in other<br />
words, our aim is to generate realistic forecasts that could be used as a basis for<br />
business planning.Where there is a choice we err on the side of caution as we are not<br />
aiming to state maximum potential growth, other methodologies may result in<br />
higher values.<br />
4.2 METHODOLOGY BY SECTOR<br />
SHIPPING<br />
We have developed a $ value for the total world shipping industry for 2003 by using<br />
tonnage shares to scale-up from official figures published by individual countries’<br />
shipping industries.<br />
The main market driver of shipping industry is the tonnage of seaborne trade<br />
(import & export), the volume of which changes as a function of nations’ GDP.<br />
Shipping activity is measured in tonne-miles for which we have used the ClarkSea<br />
index and made tonne-miles projections based on GDP growth taken from IMF<br />
and other forecasters.
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