Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

38 MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
• Government (civil spend) – where the US NOAA’s National Ocean Service is
perhaps the world’s largest spender.
Taking into account other industries, our estimated total for 2004 is some
€10.2 billion.
We assume a continuing level of R&D intensity in future years (R&D as a % of
total sector sales value) which is then applied to our individual sector forecasts, such
as shipbuilding.
Figure 4.2: Shipbuilding Expressed in € and $
4.3 DEFINITIONS
Exchange Rates – The marine market is an international industry denominated
in US$. At times, expressing the value of sectors in euros presents a false picture
of markets (see Figure 4.1) and introduces significant statistical difficulty in
our analysis.
We use actual historic exchange rates throughout this report and December 2004
rates for forecasts.
Source: Douglas-Westwood Limited
Growth Rate – The average annual growth rate is the sum of each of the five years’
annual percentage growth, divided by five (sum of 2004 to 2005… 2008 to 2009
divided by 5). However, the period growth (2005–2009) does not include the change
between 2004 and 2005. For example, in the case of Shipping this is significant as a
decline occurred between 2004 and 2005 (from €343bn to €288bn), but this decline
is not included in the period 2005–2009 (when growth is forecast from €288bn in
2005 to €308bn in 2009). During periods of considerable change, the overall effect
can be differences in the ‘annual’ and ‘period’ growth rates, sometimes from positive to
negative trends and vice versa.
Data – As other researchers have noted, more than half of the maritime sectors
identified are not covered by official European statistics and the situation becomes
worse when data is required for other countries and world markets.When data is
available, it is often in units (such as tonnage) and not € values. Internationally
comparable official statistics are often out of date, with data available in early 2005
often relating to 2002.This presents a particular problem due to the considerable
increase in activity in many marine sectors during these years.
In addition, statistics are often based on voluntary contributions and therefore often
incomplete. Examples include the leisure boating industry.