Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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double its GDP every ten years and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable
future. However, the recent economic boom could return to its long-term trend with
8% forecast in 2005 compared with an estimated 9.3% in 2004. 25 (It should be noted
that unofficial estimates have put China’s GDP growth at 11% in 2004.)
Figure 6.5: Danish Shipowners Earnings 2003
The growth rate of capital asset investment is expected to be 27% in 2004, (a drop of
15% from the first quarter) and 24% in 2005.The Chinese government has stated that
cooling the economy will be a priority in 2005 and rising interest rates and
government-imposed lending curbs are reported to be initiated.
Economic activity has exceeded long-term rates as large amounts are imported to
both feed manufacturing and infrastructure developments.The overall result is an
unprecedented increase in two-way traffic – import of bulk commodities and export
of containers of manufactured goods.
Source: Danish Shipping – Figures 24
Further Chinese growth is also likely as the European global quota system on textiles
and clothing is lifted. Ultimately there must be a limit as high growth rates become
harder to maintain. For example, China already has 80% share of US imports of toys
and footwear.
6.4 EUROPEAN MARKET
Within Europe the market was estimated to be worth €151 billion in 2004.The
European Union is very dependant on maritime transport. Official statistics state that
70% of external trade (the European Community Shipowners Association say 90%)
and 20% of internal trade in terms of volume is made by sea. A large part of the
increase over the years can be attributed to the import of oil and oil-based products.
Shipping divides into two areas; deep-sea transport – shipping on long sea routes, and
short-sea shipping – between national or European ports.
It has been stated that there were 14,000 enterprises active in the EU in 2001
generating €13.4 billion of added value and employing 155,000 persons. (Includes
both deep-sea and coastal transport.) The value added at 232% of personnel costs
compares with an average (for non-financial services) of 148%.
The sector is characterised by ‘flags of convenience’ or ‘open registries’ whereby
vessels controlled by owners in one country are registered in another that offers more
attractive terms for taxation and legislation.
24
‘Danish Shipping – Figures’ Danish Shipowners Association. 2004.
25
‘Survey by the China National Bureau of Statistics’ reported in China Daily, 20 December 2004.