Marine Industries Global Market Analysis - Marine Institute

MARINE INDUSTRIES GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS
97
The World Offshore Oil and Gas Forecast 66 suggests that it is fairly unlikely that further
gas finds on a par with Kinsale Head and Corrib will be found and assumes that
Ireland will reach peak gas output at around 2.8 Bcm per year (more than double
2004 rates) in 2006 and then slowly decline as additional smaller finds in the Celtic
Sea are brought onstream. It is forecast that 1.9 Bcm will be produced in 2015.
Although some small oil discoveries have been made in the Celtic Sea no oil
production has been achieved from Ireland and none is forecast in the period of
this report except for negligible amounts of condensate.
Figure 17.4: Subsea Field Development Costs
17.6 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES
Initial exploration is mainly by the use of seismic surveys. Drilling is a major activity
with about 1,000 exploration & appraisal wells drilled each year and more than 2,000
development wells creating a total annual expenditure exceeding $37bn in 2004.
Source: Douglas–Westwood
Drilling and completing wells can form 50% of the costs of developing an offshore
field.The other major items are fixed and floating platforms and pipelines.
Fixed platforms are still the main development method with over 6,400 estimated
to have been installed in the Gulf of Mexico to date (mainly very small ones).
The North Sea has some 600, with a combined weight of 12 million tonnes.
Where economics do not permit dedicated platforms, fields are often developed
by wells completed on the seabed and ‘tied back’ (connected) to platforms.
This is particularly the case for small fields and fields of all sizes in deepwater.
In many instances, particularly in deepwater, subsea wells are tied back to floating
production platforms.
As a region matures Capex declines and Opex dominates – this is becoming the case
with the North Sea.
Eventually, fields reach the end of their productive life and are decommissioned.
Over 100 small platforms per annum are removed from the Gulf of Mexico. Due to
its larger structures decommissioning will eventually become a major activity in the
North Sea.
66
Douglas-Westwood Limited, 2004.