Fundamental Surprises Zvi Lanir Decision Research 1201 Oak ...

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38. Adamthwaite, France, PXV: Bedarida, La Strategie Secrete. pp. 80-81. 39. E. May, p. 359. 40. C. Greetz, The Interpretation of Culture (1973). 41. In the IDF—in contrast to the three separate branches of the American arms force—there is one central general staff. A. Webster’s Anecdote Chapter 2: The Theory of Fundamental Surprises
Fundamental to this theory is the distinction between two different types of surprise: situational and fundamental. One way to introduce this distinction is with an anecdote about Noah Webster, the well-known dictionary lexicographer. One day, he arrived home unexpectedly to find his wife in the arms of his servant. “you surprised me”, said his wife. “and you have astonished me”, responded Webster. 1 Webster’s precise choice of words captured an important difference between his situation and that of is wife. One difference between surprise and astonishment is the different level of intensity associated with the two: astonishment is more powerful and extensive than surprise. Indeed, Mr. Webster’s situation possesses an element of shock. His image of himself and his relations with his wife were suddenly and blatantly proven false. This was not the case for Mrs. Webster who, although surprised by the incident, still could maintain her image of herself, her environment, her husband, and the relations between them. Indeed, even if Mrs. Webster had taken all the steps she viewed as necessary to prevent the incident, she had to assume that there was some possibility of her unfaithfulness eventually being revealed. Her feelings might be analogous to those of drivers whose brakes suddenly fail. Although surprised and frightened, such drivers should have realized that brake failures are always a possibility. Thus, we are aware that failures occur in nature as well as in technical, social, and organizational systems, so that when they do occur, our belief in those systems is not completely destroyed, however surprised and upset we might be. For Mrs. Webster, the failure was due to an external factor. Although she was uncertain about that external environment she was not uncertain about herself. In contrast, Mr. Webster’s astonishment revealed unrecognized uncertainty extending far beyond his wife, his servant, or other external factors. For him, comprehending the event’s significance required a wholistic reexamination of his selfperceptions in relation to his environment. Although this surprise offered Mr. Webster a unique opportunity for self-awareness, it came at the price of refuting his deepest beliefs. A second distinction between surprise and astonishment lies in one’s ability to define in advance the issues for which one must be alert. Surprises relate to specific events, locations, and time frames. Their demarcations are clear. Therefore, it is
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Page 3 and 4: surprises study their victims’ be
Page 5 and 6: According to the glossary of the Ch
Page 7 and 8: and noise. Understood either litera
Page 9 and 10: Therefore, despite her convincing a
Page 11 and 12: was a tragic mistake. In clarifying
Page 13 and 14: essence of conceiving the meaning o
Page 15 and 16: An even more striking example is pr
Page 17 and 18: many of the cultural misunderstandi
Page 19 and 20: 1. See the definition of the word
Page 21 and 22: Barbarosa not because of unclear si
Page 23: 33. Allison, op cit. (1971). R. K.
Page 27 and 28: A situational surprise may trigger
Page 29 and 30: 2. There is an upper limit to the m
Page 31 and 32: While Ashby’s organism’s system
Page 33 and 34: within “normal science” and par
Page 35 and 36: standpoint of superiority. Voltaire
Page 37 and 38: When a fundamental change occurs in
Page 39 and 40: 8. J. S. Bell. On the Einstein-Podo
Page 41 and 42: plans been carried out, the IDF wou
Page 43 and 44: the Suez Canal. At the same time, c
Page 45 and 46: lost. 15a The OC Southern Command
Page 47 and 48: Ramat Magshimim) before the reserve
Page 49 and 50: discussion on the Eve of Passover (
Page 51 and 52: Actually, the chief-of-Staff preced
Page 53 and 54: How did this happen The main mobili
Page 55 and 56: of war,’ said Dayan, who added:
Page 57 and 58: apidly learned the lessons of the s
Page 59 and 60: surprise. In previous wars, the qua
Page 61 and 62: In Intelligence’s annual analysis
Page 63 and 64: self-image in the context of the Ar
Page 65 and 66: 15a. See Martin Van Creveld, Comman
Page 67 and 68: Ginnosar, that Saturday. When he re
Page 69 and 70: Israel’s doctrine confronts a wid
Page 71 and 72: mission objectives rather than by r
Page 73 and 74: widely accepted. The socialization
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were, at the time, perceived as app
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“The impossible had occurred. Aga
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In the Six Day War, the Egyptian fo
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day of fighting without relying on
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Adan Division was in the midst of i
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Once Israel reached 100 km from Cai
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11. Maariv, October 10 th , 1973 (H
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Egyptian officers up to the battali
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and organizational changes could ma
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personal caprice; continuation of t
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his position in Washington as Israe
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D. The Learning Process Within the
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Begin, who seems to have been aware
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deterrent power. These gains create
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von Clausewitz 18 stated that only
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situational information can make de
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failing to cause Syria a major setb
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Colonel Eli Geva, a brigade command
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scorned Diaspora relic emerges much
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Sadat’s view on the Israel-Arab C
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Real stories are unfinished ones; a
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has a print gallery in which there
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wisdom that entropy always increase
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does not affect your freedom, but y
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Fundamental thinking, which means t
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kept, they are only partial and usu
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12. H. A. Simon. 13. J. Steinbruner
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