Fundamental Surprises Zvi Lanir Decision Research 1201 Oak ...

control of the environment and exploit natural resources and new types of energies; to
increase the wealth of individuals, organizations, and nations; to gain military superiority
and deterrence capacity; to improve health conditions and prolong the expectancy of life;
to reduce the danger of natural and man-made hazards. All these increase the rate of
fundamental changes in our environment. At the same time, our ability to face the
challenges of fundamental learning (as a self-awareness question) do not improve. On
the contrary, I argue that it has decreased.
The extended time period required for fundamental learning, along with the
accelerated rate of fundamental changes in the environment, has created a stage where it
less likely for social systems to complete one cycle of fundamental learning before a new
fundamental change occurs.
Chapter 2 Notes
1. I thank Professor Yehosafat Harkabi for familiarizing me with this anecdote.
2. W. R. Ashby. Introduction to Cybernetics. Chapter 11, p. 202-218, 1966.
3. Ibid, p. 207.
4. According to the “law of requisite variety,” the capacity for regulation cannot
exceed a system’s communication channel capacity. In this sense, the law
resembles Shannon’s Theorem, which states, “when noise appears in a message
the amount that can be removed by a correction channel is limited to the amount
of information that can be carried by the same channel.” C. E. Shannon & W.
Weaver: The Mathematical Theory of Communication (1949). Information plays
a crucial role in this strategy of controlling variety. “The fencer must watch his
opponent closely and he must gain information in all ways possible if he is to
survive.” Ashby, p. 201. And the “signal vs. noise” concept fits Shannon’s ideas
very well.
5. Ashby, p.197.
6. Buckley. Sociology and Modern System Theory (1967).
7. A. Goswami. Creativity and Quantum Theory. Institute of Theoretical Science,
University of Oregon (1986)