Fundamental Surprises Zvi Lanir Decision Research 1201 Oak ...

Fundamental to this theory is the distinction between two different types of
surprise: situational and fundamental. One way to introduce this distinction is with an
anecdote about Noah Webster, the well-known dictionary lexicographer.
One day, he arrived home unexpectedly to find his wife in the arms of his servant.
“you surprised me”, said his wife. “and you have astonished me”, responded Webster. 1
Webster’s precise choice of words captured an important difference between his situation
and that of is wife.
One difference between surprise and astonishment is the different level of
intensity associated with the two: astonishment is more powerful and extensive than
surprise. Indeed, Mr. Webster’s situation possesses an element of shock. His image of
himself and his relations with his wife were suddenly and blatantly proven false. This
was not the case for Mrs. Webster who, although surprised by the incident, still could
maintain her image of herself, her environment, her husband, and the relations between
them. Indeed, even if Mrs. Webster had taken all the steps she viewed as necessary to
prevent the incident, she had to assume that there was some possibility of her
unfaithfulness eventually being revealed. Her feelings might be analogous to those of
drivers whose brakes suddenly fail. Although surprised and frightened, such drivers
should have realized that brake failures are always a possibility. Thus, we are aware that
failures occur in nature as well as in technical, social, and organizational systems, so that
when they do occur, our belief in those systems is not completely destroyed, however
surprised and upset we might be.
For Mrs. Webster, the failure was due to an external factor. Although she was
uncertain about that external environment she was not uncertain about herself.
In contrast, Mr. Webster’s astonishment revealed unrecognized uncertainty
extending far beyond his wife, his servant, or other external factors. For him,
comprehending the event’s significance required a wholistic reexamination of his selfperceptions
in relation to his environment. Although this surprise offered Mr. Webster a
unique opportunity for self-awareness, it came at the price of refuting his deepest beliefs.
A second distinction between surprise and astonishment lies in one’s ability to
define in advance the issues for which one must be alert. Surprises relate to specific
events, locations, and time frames. Their demarcations are clear. Therefore, it is