Technical Guidelines for Integrated Disease Surveillance ... - PHRplus

Annex 30Estimating Vaccine Suppliesfor Immunization ActivitiesOutbreak: _____________________Date confirmed: ______________Target population:___ children age 0 up to 5 years___ children age 9 months up to 14 years___ children and adults age 0 up to 30 years___ women of childbearing age: 15 years up to 45 years___ all adults and children in the general population1. Calculate the size of the target population. If the activity only targets a proportion of the general population,estimate the size of the target population. Multiply the general population times the percentage ofchildren or adults in the target population. If you do not know the exact age distribution rates in thearea, use recommended estimates such as the following:— children age 0 up to 5 years 20%— children age 9 months up to 14 years 45%— children and adults age 1 up to 30 years 70%— women of childbearing age 15-45 years 20%2. Find out how many doses each person should receive. Record the number below as “number of dosesrecommended”.3. Allow for wastage. Use a wastage factor of 20%. Multiply the size of the target population (see step 1)times the number of doses times 1.20.____________________ x __________ x 1.20 = ________________Size of target population Number of wastage Number of dosesrecommended dosesto order including wastage4. Allow for a reserve stock. Use a reserve factor of 25%. Multiply the estimated number of doses includingwastage times 1.25 to obtain the total estimated number of doses.____________________ x 1.25 = __________________Number of doses Reserve factor Total number of estimated dosesincluding wastage5. To obtain the total number of vials of vaccine to order, divide the total number of estimated doses by thenumber of doses that are contained in a vial. (This is usually printed on the label.)__________ ÷ __________ = _______________Total number of Doses per vial Total number of vialsestimated dosesrequiredAnnex 30: Estimating Vaccine Supplies for Immunization Activities207