Saudi Petrochemicals - NCBC

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COMPANY DESCRIPTIONThe estimated project cost is SR2.5bn, with an equity contribution of 35%comprised of SR875mn from the two partners. Debt worth SR1.6bn is expected tobe raised from SIDF and from commercial banks.Exhibit 39: Product flow chart for planned projects‘000 mt per annumCaustic - NaOHC austic Soda to Ma’aden250,000 mtpaSodiumChloride370 KTACausticChlorine PlantChlorineEDCPlantEDC to export markets245,000 mtpaEthylene Amine project55,000 mtpaEthylene from SEPC85,000 mtpaMeoh,N- Butanol,MEG,DEG,PEG,2EHAcrylic Acid75,000 mtpaEsterificationunitMixed Acrylate125,000 mtpaAirAcrylicAcidunitAcrylic Acid150,000Acrylic Acid75,000 mtpaPurificationPolymerizationSAP80,000 mtpaSource: Company data, NCBC Research27 April 2010 SAHARA – INITIATING COVERAGE36
FinancialsExhibit 40: Income statementIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014ESales - 1,242 2,358 2,440 3,757 3,523% change n/a n/a 89.9 3.5 54.0 -6.2COGS - (781) (1,543) (1,603) (2,547) (2,410)Gross Profit - 462 815 837 1,209 1,112Gross margin (%) n/a 37.2 34.6 34.3 32.2 31.6G&A (39) (67) (128) (132) (205) (193)D&A expenses - (80) (200) (202) (338) (341)Operating Profit (39) 394 687 705 1,005 919% change n/a n/a 74.2 2.6 42.6 -8.5EBITDA (39) 474 887 907 1,343 1,261% change n/a 87.2 2.2 48.1 -6.1Margins (%) n/a 38.2 37.6 37.2 35.7 35.8Interest expense - (32) (55) (55) (51) (47)Profit before Zakat and MI 78 960 1,219 1,180 1,650 1,552Minority interest - (316) (457) (442) (619) (582)Net Income before Zakat 78 644 762 737 1,031 970Zakat (1) (43) (38) (31) (56) (77)Net income/(loss) 76 601 723 706 975 892Net margin (%) n/a 48.4 30.7 28.9 26.0 25.3as a % of NI before NI and Zakat n/a 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5EPS 0.35 2.05 2.47 2.41 3.33 3.05Source: Company, NCBC Research estimatesExhibit 41: Balance sheetIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014ECash & Cash equivalents 556 965 1,005 1,160 2,420 3,899Other rec. & prepayments 154 154 154 154 154 154Accounts receivables - 221 420 435 669 627Inventories 104 160 317 329 523 495Total current assets 815 1,501 1,896 2,078 3,767 5,176Investment in associates 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007Projects under construction 4,083 997 1,830 2,663 - -Property and equipment, net 16 3,891 3,718 3,549 5,933 5,661Total non-current assets 5,141 5,894 6,555 7,219 6,940 6,668Total assets 5,956 7,396 8,451 9,297 10,707 11,844A/c payables & other liabilities 184 107 211 220 349 330Other current liabilities 80 80 80 80 80 80Total current liabilities 265 188 292 300 430 411Long term debts 1,338 1,938 1,796 1,575 1,352 1,126Advances against Islamic922 922 835 746 655 562facilitiesOther non-current liabilities 99 99 99 99 99 99Total non-current liabilities 2,360 2,960 2,730 2,419 2,105 1,787Share capital 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925Statutory reserves 8 68 140 211 308 398Retained earnings 131 672 1,323 1,958 2,836 3,639Total stockholders' equity 2,938 3,539 4,263 4,969 5,944 6,836Minority interest 393 709 1,166 1,609 2,227 2,809Total liabilities &stockholders' equity 5,956 7,396 8,451 9,297 10,707 11,844Source: Company, NCBC Research estimates27 April 2010 SAHARA – INITIATING COVERAGE37
Page 1 and 2: NCB Capital Research DepartmentApri
Page 3 and 4: KSA Petrochemical Sector
Page 5 and 6: Overview of coverageExhibit 1: KSA
Page 7 and 8: INDUSTRY OUTLOOKgovernment offers n
Page 9 and 10: INDUSTRY OUTLOOKACCESS TO LOW COST
Page 11 and 12: INDUSTRY OUTLOOKHDPE SUPPLY DYNAMIC
Page 13 and 14: INDUSTRY OUTLOOKDuring 2003-2008, g
Page 15 and 16: INDUSTRY OUTLOOKpolypropylene capac
Page 17 and 18: Oil: Correlation & pricingPetrochem
Page 19 and 20: OIL: CORRELATION AND PRICINGsector.
Page 21 and 22: Industry financialsRevenue outlookW
Page 23 and 24: INDUSTRY FINANCIALS1Q 2010 financia
Page 25 and 26: Key assumptionsUtilization rate est
Page 27 and 28: VALUATIONExhibit 27: Valuation over
Page 29 and 30: PETROCHEMICAL | 27 April 2010INITIA
Page 31 and 32: Investment viewAL WAHA PLANT STARTI
Page 33 and 34: Company descriptionOverviewSahara P
Page 35: COMPANY DESCRIPTIONPlanned projects
Page 41 and 42: Investment viewLOOKING FULLY VALUED
Page 43 and 44: Valuation: SR50.7/shareValuation me
Page 45 and 46: COMPANY DESCRIPTIONExhibit 31: Prod
Page 47 and 48: FinancialsExhibit 32: Income statem
Page 51 and 52: Investment viewBOTTOM LINE TO REMAI
Page 53 and 54: Valuation: SR20.3/shareValuation me
Page 55 and 56: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEFeedstock agre
Page 57 and 58: FINANCIALSExhibit 57: Cash flow sta
Page 59 and 60: Investment scenariosValuation can i
Page 61 and 62: INVESTMENT VIEWRisks to our viewEAR
Page 63 and 64: Company descriptionOverviewEstablis
Page 67 and 68: PETROCHEMICAL | 27 April 2010COMPAN
Page 69 and 70: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEHIGHER MINORIT
Page 71 and 72: FINANCIALSExhibit 63: Cash flow sta
Page 73 and 74: Forecast changesPHASE II TO START C
Page 77: Kindly send all mailing list reques

Saudi Petrochemicals - NCBC

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