Saudi Petrochemicals - NCBC

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FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEExhibit 66: Earnings revisionsIn SR Mn, unless otherwise statedOld2010ENew2010E% chgOld2011ENew2011E% chgRevenue 2,934 2,817 (4.0) 3,302 3,741 13.3EBITDA 1,654 1,722 4.1 1,905 2,269 19.1Net profit 670 870 29.8 818 1,171 43.2Target price (SR) N/A N/A N/A 27.9 29.4 5.6Source: NCBC Research estimates.27 April 2010 SIPCHEM – COMPANY UPDATE74
FinancialsExhibit 67: Income statementIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014ESales 830 2,817 3,741 3,911 3,565 3,665Change (%) (51.4) 239.2 32.8 4.6 (8.9) 2.8Cost of Sales (435) (979) (1,286) (1,581) (1,500) (1,604)Gross Profit 395 1,838 2,455 2,330 2,065 2,061Gross margin (%) 47.6 65.2 65.6 59.6 57.9 56.2SG&A (67) (116) (186) (195) (177) (182)Depreciation (167) (308) (364) (385) (407) (429)Operating Profit 168 1,413 1,905 1,751 1,480 1,450Operating Margin (%) 20.3 50.2 50.9 44.8 41.5 39.6Minority interest (29) (454) (611) (558) (472) (470)Profit before taxes 141 917 1,233 1,126 953 949Zakat (40) (46) (62) (57) (48) (48)Net Income 141 870 1,171 1,069 905 901Net Income Margin (%) 17.0 30.9 31.3 27.3 25.4 24.6EPS 0.42 2.61 3.51 3.21 2.72 2.70Source: Company, NCBC Research estimatesExhibit 68: Balance sheetIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014ECash & Cash equivalents 1,831 1,724 1,743 1,885 1,976 1,905Accounts receivables 308 772 1,025 1,072 977 1,004Inventories 79 201 264 325 308 330Total current assets 2,218 2,697 3,032 3,282 3,261 3,239Fixed assets 9,517 9,596 9,737 9,877 9,974 10,088Other non-current assets 83 83 83 83 83 83Total non-current assets 9,601 9,679 9,820 9,960 10,057 10,171Total assets 11,818 12,377 12,852 13,241 13,318 13,410Accounts payable 620 754 826 895 876 900Accrued and other currentliabilities 283 773 773 773 773 486Total current liabilities 903 1,528 1,599 1,668 1,649 1,386Long term debts 4,241 3,541 2,840 2,140 1,440 1,020Other non-current liabilities 842 799 756 713 669 633Total non-current liabilities 5,083 4,340 3,596 2,853 2,109 1,652Share capital 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,333Reserves 1,208 1,295 1,412 1,519 1,609 1,700Retained earnings 484 932 1,650 2,276 2,755 3,231Others (103) (103) (103) (103) (103) (103)Total stockholders' equity 4,922 5,457 6,292 7,026 7,595 8,161Minority interest 910 1,052 1,365 1,695 1,964 2,210Total equity & liabilities 11,818 12,377 12,852 13,241 13,318 13,410Source: Company, NCBC Research estimates27 April 2010 SIPCHEM – COMPANY UPDATE75
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NCB Capital Research DepartmentApri
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KSA Petrochemical Sector
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Overview of coverageExhibit 1: KSA
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOKgovernment offers n
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOKACCESS TO LOW COST
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOKHDPE SUPPLY DYNAMIC
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOKDuring 2003-2008, g
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOKpolypropylene capac
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Oil: Correlation & pricingPetrochem
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OIL: CORRELATION AND PRICINGsector.
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Industry financialsRevenue outlookW
Page 23 and 24: INDUSTRY FINANCIALS1Q 2010 financia
Page 25 and 26: Key assumptionsUtilization rate est
Page 27 and 28: VALUATIONExhibit 27: Valuation over
Page 29 and 30: PETROCHEMICAL | 27 April 2010INITIA
Page 31 and 32: Investment viewAL WAHA PLANT STARTI
Page 33 and 34: Company descriptionOverviewSahara P
Page 35 and 36: COMPANY DESCRIPTIONPlanned projects
Page 37 and 38: FinancialsExhibit 40: Income statem
Page 41 and 42: Investment viewLOOKING FULLY VALUED
Page 43 and 44: Valuation: SR50.7/shareValuation me
Page 45 and 46: COMPANY DESCRIPTIONExhibit 31: Prod
Page 51 and 52: Investment viewBOTTOM LINE TO REMAI
Page 53 and 54: Valuation: SR20.3/shareValuation me
Page 55 and 56: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEFeedstock agre
Page 57 and 58: FINANCIALSExhibit 57: Cash flow sta
Page 59 and 60: Investment scenariosValuation can i
Page 61 and 62: INVESTMENT VIEWRisks to our viewEAR
Page 63 and 64: Company descriptionOverviewEstablis
Page 67 and 68: PETROCHEMICAL | 27 April 2010COMPAN
Page 69 and 70: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEHIGHER MINORIT
Page 71 and 72: FINANCIALSExhibit 63: Cash flow sta
Page 73: Forecast changesPHASE II TO START C
Page 77: Kindly send all mailing list reques
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