Saudi Petrochemicals - NCBC

FINANCIALSExhibit 34: Cash flow statementIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014ECash flow from op. (a) (1,787) 2,542 3,319 3,997 4,080 4,069Cash flow from inv.(b) (1,455) 107 (111) (130) (148) (185)CAPEX (1,471) (93) (111) (130) (148) (185)Cash flow from fin.(c) 4,970 (3,071) (1,509) (3,899) (1,841) (1,861)Debt 2,814 (916) (947) (3,336) (1,279) (1,298)Net chg. in cash (a+b+c) 1,728 (422) 1,699 (32) 2,091 2,023Cash at start of the year 1,033 2,761 2,339 4,037 4,006 6,097Cash at end of the year 2,761 2,339 4,037 4,006 6,097 8,119Source: Company, NCBC Research estimatesExhibit 35: Key rationsIn SR mn, unless otherwise stated2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014EPer share ratios (SR)EPS (0.05) 5.11 5.16 5.57 5.55 5.50FCF per share (3.2) 4.6 6.2 7.2 7.2 7.0Div per share - - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Book value per share 10.1 15.2 19.3 23.9 28.5 33.0Valuation ratios (x)P/E n/a 9.6 9.5 8.8 8.8 8.9P/FCF n/a 10.6 7.9 6.8 6.7 6.9P/BV 4.8 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5EV/sales - 5.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2EV/EBITDA n/a 10.6 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.4Div yield (%) - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Profitability ratios (%)Gross margins - 44.4 39.9 40.0 40.3 40.2Operating margin - 41.7 34.4 34.5 34.9 34.7EBITDA margins - 52.1 43.9 43.8 44.3 44.3Net profit margins - 38.4 29.7 30.9 31.0 31.0ROE - 33.6 26.7 23.3 19.5 16.7ROA - 12.1 11.4 12.6 12.0 11.3Liquidity ratiosCurrent ratio 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4Quick Ratio 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8Operating ratios (days)Inventory - 110 110 110 110 110Receivables outstanding - 60 60 60 60 60Payables outstanding - 80 80 80 80 80Operating cycle - 170 170 170 170 170Cash cycle - 90 90 90 90 90Production & salesProduction capacity (mn mt) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9Production volumes (mn mt) 0.8 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7Utilization rate (%) 59 96 96 96 96 96External sales volumes (mt) 0.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1Source: Company, NCBC Research estimates27 April 2010 YANSAB – INITIATING COVERAGE48