SBR- Content.pmd - INBO

State of the Basin Report - 20033. ConclusionFour major trends in macroeconomic activity seem likely to appear in the LMB in the coming decade:increasing agricultural specialisation and commercialisation, increasing non-resource based industrialdevelopments, increasing urbanisation and increasing subregional integration.As the LMB primarily gains its income from agriculture, reforming this sector is of vital importancein order to achieve growth and prosperity. Through producing a variety of cash crops for marketing,incomes in the poorer areas of the basin could improve significantly, and at least move beyond theircurrent subsistence level. The more developed areas will also see improvements in the quality ofgoods produced. The most developed areas will increase the use of technology and findings fromscientific research in agricultural production.To further boost overall productivity and income, the LMB countries will seek to develop moremanufacturing-oriented industries. The less developed areas will try to diversify their productionand thereby end their dependency on the garment sector. The more developed countries will try tospread their industry geographically. The latter will have direct effects for the LMB, especially inThailand.Industrial development will tend to concentrate in and around urban areas and thereby attract anincreasing part of the populations to the cities. Population growth in itself will also be a drivingforce in the urbanisation process. Some people will move to urban areas within the LMB, whileothers will be attracted by cities outside the basin.Increased commercial production in both agriculture and industry will, together with the increasingincome levels generated, increase trade and be a driving force behind increasing de facto subregionalintegration. Furthermore, the countries in the LMB have also formally committed themselves to apath of increased subregional integration.The four trends in macroeconomic activity will have major impacts on the environment and use ofresources within the Mekong basin. Different areas and regions will compete with each other for useof the basin’s resources, especially as economic development will come in different areas at a differentpace and through different sectors, depending on the economic climate in each country. Carefulplanning and cooperation, assisted by the increasing formal integration between the countries, canhelp optimise the use of resources in the LMB.96