SBR- Content.pmd - INBO

State of the Basin Report - 2003The dependency ratios will tend to decline as young people become adults and, in general, have fewerchildren than their parents. This transition has begun in Thailand and Viet Nam. At the same time, peopleare living longer, signalling major changes in the overall age structure in future. In the period 1999-2015,the number of elderly in the LMB is expected to grow at annual rates of 2-3 percent, while growth ratesfor the 0-15 year age group will be less than one percent or negative. 26 In Viet Nam, the elderly dependencyratio doubled to 0.15 in the three-year period from 1997 to 2000. 27 As the number of elderly increase, agedependency ratios will tend to rise again, with more elderly depending on working age adults for support.Household formation. The average household size in Cambodia and Lao PDR is five or six persons,reflecting a common feature in rural, subsistence households in the LMB. In Thailand, the average householdsize has dropped from six to four persons due to declining fertility rates. A similar transition is occurring inViet Nam, aided by government policies to encourage small families. At the same time, the number ofhouseholds is increasing. For example, between 1993 and 1997 there was an increase of about 20 percentin the number of households in Cambodia. 28Overall, women head about one-quarter of the households in the LMB. In rural areas, female householdheads tend to be widows who lost their husbands in war, or married women whose husbands areaway working as migrant labourers. In rural areas of northern Lao PDR, among older householdheads, as many as 60-70 percent are women. 29In Cambodia, Lao PDR and Viet Nam, the rate of female-headed households in urban areas is twicethat for rural areas. 30 Rural women raising families alone are more likely to lose their land due toconflict or poverty, which forces them to move to urban areas in search of work. In Viet Nam,where women’s education levels are generally higher than in the other countries, female householdheads may be attracted to urban areas where they can find better work opportunities.Table 2. Individual and household characteristicsAge dependency Aver. %M/F Fertility Total Youth Elderly HH size Female headratio rateCambodia 93.0 5.1 0.88 0.82 0.06 5.2 25Lao PDR 97.7 5.1 0.87 0.80 0.07 6.0 15Thailand 100.0 1.7 0.42 0.33 0.09 4.1 24Viet Nam 97.6 2.4 0.64 0.49 0.15 4.5 32Sources: ADB 2002; NIS 1998; NSC/UNDP 2002; NSO 2002a, UNDP-Viet Nam 2002; WB 2002b1.4 People’s movements in the basinPeople living in the LMB have moved frequently and for diverse reasons. Conflict and instabilityin the past 50 years have caused many people in Lao PDR, Viet Nam and Cambodia to leave theirhomes. When they were able, many returned voluntarily or as part of government resettlementprogrammes. In upland areas, traditional swidden cultivation has involved the regular movementsof entire villages. Government policies influence people’s movements, moving people out of highlandareas as part of programmer to stop shifting cultivation (as in Lao PDR) or into highland areas tomeet government objectives for increased agricultural production (as in Viet Nam).46