SBR- Content.pmd - INBO

State of the Basin Report - 20035.3 Population growth and increased urbanisation: The growth of primary and secondary urbancenters in the Mekong floodplains will result in expanded areas of residential development, otherbuildings, roads, etc. The loss of floodplain storage capacity will increase the severity of the directeffects of flood events (extent, depth and duration of flooded areas), as well as the economic andsocial consequences (urban centers as the location of higher, “value-added” economic activities;number of people living in urban centers; etc.).5.4 Rural development issues in the LMB: National policies in support of higher value commercialagriculture in the basin increase the economic risks associated with exposure to floods. Increasedpopulation pressures in upland areas that result in deforestation may also contribute to the intensityof flooding in the basin, although there is no data so far that demonstrates an increase in floods as aresult of forest clearance at the scale of large basins such as the Mekong.5.5 Reduced capacity to cope with floods: The recent phenomenon of serious flooding in thebasin in successive years has raised another major concern – that of reduction of the capacity ofgovernments, communities and households to cope with floods due to the cumulative social andeconomic effects. For example, recovery in the basin after the 2001 floods was more difficult due tolingering effects of the 2000 floods: infrastructure had not yet been repaired; households had notfully replaced houses and other assets lost the previous year; and economic production (agriculturaland non-farm) had not been fully re-established, etc.Hotspots and trans-boundary issues related to flooding in the basin are interrelated. Cambodia andViet Nam, the downstream countries, are most severely affected by flooding. Land management,structural measures and in-stream modifications that occur in the northern part of the Mekong Basin(including the Upper Basin) have the potential to influence flooding in the downstream portions. Interms of flooding, Northeast Thailand is also “downstream” of flood season discharges from thetributaries in Lao PDR.Other hot spots may emerge due to interventions that cause loss of floodplain storage capacity (e.g.,structures and/or land reclamation), particularly in areas of the Mekong floodplains being developedfor higher value uses (e.g., commercial agriculture, urban development). Whether they will beconsidered to constitute a trans-boundary flood management issue will depend on their locationsand the degree of cumulative impacts.278