SBR- Content.pmd - INBO

5 - Peoples of the MekongPopulation growth. In the short term – that is, over the next 2-3 decades – the population of theLMB will continue to grow rapidly. Population growth – increased numbers and densities of people– that exceeds the capacity of the natural resources of the basin can undermine environmentalmanagement and sustainable development of the water resources, land capacities and the richbiodiversity of the LMB. The two poorest countries, Cambodia and Lao PDR, will, at present ratesof growth, nearly double their populations in the next twenty years. This will place significant pressureson rural livelihoods, as well as on the use and management of natural resources for economicdevelopment in these countries.The prospects in Thailand and Viet Nam are somewhat more optimistic in the short term. Fertilityrates in these countries have declined to or near replacement levels. While the large number ofyoung people have started or will soon start their own families, they will likely have fewer childrenthan their parents. Overall, the rate ofpopulation growth will slow in thesecountries, with the populations increasing20-30 percent over the next twenty years.However, this transition to more moderatepopulation growth will take longer in ruralareas of the LMB where extended familieswith many children have supportedtraditional agricultural livelihoods.Eventually, the rate of population growthin all four countries will decline. InCambodia, Lao PDR and elsewhere inrural areas of the basin, increasededucation and health services for womenwill be a primary cause of lower fertilityrates. The development of agriculturebeyond subsistence farming to include adiversified range of cash crops, as well asthe expansion of non-farm economicactivities in rural areas, will contribute tohigher household incomes. These changesinteract with other factors to result inslower population growth.For the next two to three decades, the population ofthe LMB will continue to grow rapidlyPopulation growth impacts on thesustainable development of naturalresources in several ways. The simpleincrease in the numbers of people placeshigher demands on the availability and useof water, land, energy and other resources.As mentioned, increased numbers andThe overall population density of the LMB is low at 87people km 2 , but much of the land is not arabledensities risk exceeding the natural carrying capacity of resources, as well as the present institutionalcapacities to manage them. Population growth interacts with other driving forces such as economicgrowth and urbanisation. Changes in the age structure of the population along with increased economicgrowth and higher incomes lead to changes in labour productivity and consumption patterns. Thesefactors also contribute to population migration patterns, including increased urbanisation.71