Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Key Data Preview140012001000800600400200-200-400-600-800Chart 5: Japanese Trade Balance (JPY bn, sa)005 06 07 08 09 10 11Sources: MOF, BNP paribasJPY bn Sep (f) Aug Jul JunTrade balance (nsa) 145.9 -777.2 67.9 67.3Trade balance (sa) -166.0 -294.4 -160.2 -223.9Key Point:Led by surging shipments of passenger cars, thanks tothe restoration of supply chains, exports in Septembershould expand and slightly reduce the trade account’sdeficit.BNP Paribas Forecast: Slightly Reduced TradeAccount DeficitJapan: Trade data (September)Release Date: Monday 24 OctoberBased on data through mid-month, we expect real exports tohave expanded by roughly 2% m/m in September, led byrobust shipments of transport equipment (passenger cars,etc.). Real exports have been on the mend since May, thanksto production recovering alongside the restoration of supplychains. Even so, with the exception of transport equipment(where output is being ramped up), production growth andexports have moderated of late, as things have largelyreturned to normal (pre-disaster levels of February).Consequently, the main determinant of export growth goingforward will be foreign demand, not domestic supplycapability. With both developed and emerging economiesshow signs of losing momentum, Japan’s exports could shiftinto a lower gear. Real imports, meanwhile, are expected toexpand a modest 0.4% m/m rise, as demand remains firm formineral fuels (LNG, petroleum products), reflecting increaseddependence on thermal power generation amid the shuttingdown of nuclear reactors, and companies continue to importa wide range of products to make up for domestic supplyshortages. But because imports on a nominal basis areexpected to contract slightly, reflecting falling prices for crudeoil, we expect the seasonally adjusted trade account’s deficitto have shrunk slightly in September.Chart 6: Eurozone PMI and Sub-ComponentsSources: Reuters EcoWin ProOct (f) Sept Aug JulManufacturing 48.0 48.5 49.0 50.4Services 48.5 48.8 51.5 51.6Composite 48.8 49.1 50.7 51.1Key Point:Further weakening in orders will generate furtherweakening in overall index.BNP Paribas Forecast: Further WeakeningEurozone: ‘Flash’ PMI (October)Release Date: Monday, 24 OctoberWeaknesses in the manufacturing PMI spilled over to theservice sector in September. Both indices are now below theexpansion threshold of 50.Most of the decline relates to deteriorating order books.Since April, new orders have been below 50. Export relatedorders have declined less than total new orders, indicatingthat the weakness essentially stems from domesticeconomies.Employment figures started to trend downwards, butconsiderably slower than other components. On a eurozoneaverage, the sub-component remains 1.5 points above theexpansion threshold. However, this might be biased by apersistently outperforming German labour market. Equivalentmeasures in France dropped below 50 for the first time inSeptember, indicating that companies are starting to evaluatethe downturn as more persistent.The slowdown is therefore likely to continue over the nextfew months, with another relatively sharp decline in October,due to a generally deteriorating climate and to a downwardadjustment of the still relatively high-level German economy.Weakening output PMIs also spilled over to prices. Inparticular, manufacturing prices components of PMIs havedeclined and with weakening demand, are likely to continueto do so in October.Market Economics 20 October 2011Market Mover58www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com