Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Economic Calendar: 31 Oct – 25 Nov31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 NovJapan: Housing Starts SepEurozone: HICP (Flash)Oct, Labour SepUK: Net Consumer CreditSep, Mortgage ApprovalsSepFrance: PPI SepItaly: PPI Sep, CPI (Prel)OctNorway: Retail Sales SepUS: Chicago PMI OctCanada: GDP AugAustralia: RBA RateAnnouncementJapan: BoJ MonetaryPolicy Meeting MinutesUK: CIPS ManufacturingOct, GDP (Adv) Q3Switz: PMI ManufacturingOctUS: ISM ManufacturingOct, Construction SepEurozone: ManufacturingPMI (Final) OctGermany: Labour SepNorway: Labour AugUS: FOMC RateAnnouncement,Challenger Layoffs Oct,ADP Labour OctAustralia: Retail SalesSepJapan: HolidayEurozone: ECB RateAnnouncement & PressConferenceUK: CIPS Services OctUS: Productivity andCosts (Prel) Q3, FactoryOrders Sep, ISM ServicesOctAustralia: RBA MonetaryPolicy StatementEurozone: PPI Sep,Services PMI (Final) OctGermany: Factory OrdersSepSpain: Industrial ProductionSepUS: Labour OctCanada: Labour OctDuring Week: UK Nationwide House Prices Oct, Halifax House Prices OctNorth America Clocks Go Back 1 Hour7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 NovJapan: Leading IndicatorSepEurozone: Retail SalesSepGermany: IndustrialProduction SepNorway: IndustrialProduction SepSwitz: CPI OctUS: Consumer CreditSepAustralia: NAB BusinessSurvey OctUK: BRC Retail SalesMonitor Oct, RICS HousePrices Oct, IndustrialProduction SepGermany: Trade BalanceSepFrance: Trade BalanceSepNeths: IndustrialProduction SepUS: NFIB Small BusinessOptimism OctAustralia: WestpacConsumer ConfidenceNovJapan: Current AccountSepUK: Trade Balance SepFrance: BoF Survey Oct,Investment Survey Oct,Budget Balance SepSweden: IndustrialProduction Sep, RiksbankMonetary Policy MinutesUS: Wholesale Trade SepAustralia: Labour OctJapan: M2 Oct,Machinery Orders SepEurozone: ECB BulletinUK: BoE RateAnnouncementGermany: CPI OctFrance: CPI Oct, IP SepItaly: IP SepNeths: CPI OctSweden: CPI OctNorway: CPI Oct, PPI OctUS: Trade Balance Sep,Import Prices Oct, UoMSentiment (Prel) Nov,Treasury Statement OctDuring Week: Germany WPI Oct14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 NovJapan: GDP (Prel) Q3Eurozone: IndustrialProduction SepFrance: Current AccountSepAustralia: RBA MPCMinutesEurozone: Trade BalanceSep, GDP (Flash) Q3UK: CPI OctGermany: GDP (Prel)Q3, ZEW Survey NovFrance: GDP (Prel) Q3,Non-Farm Payrolls (Prel)Q3, Wages (Prel) Q3Spain: CPI OctItaly: EU Trade Bal SepNeths: GDP Q3, RetailSales SepUS: Empire State SurveyNov, Retail Sales Oct,PPI Oct, Bus Inv SepJapan: BoJ RateAnnouncementEurozone: HICP Oct,EU15 New CarRegistrations OctUK: BoE Inflation Report,Labour OctSpain: GDP (Final) Q3Italy: CPI OctUS: CPI Oct, IndustrialProduction Oct, TICSData Sep, NAHB HMI NovEurozone: GoverningCouncil Meeting (No RateAnnouncement)UK: Retail Sales OctSweden: Labour OctNeths: Labour OctUS: New Home StartsOct, Philly Fed SurveyNov21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 NovJapan: BoJ MonetaryPolicy Meeting Minutes,Trade Balance OctEurozone: CurrentAccount SepItaly: Non-EU TradeBalance OctUS: Existing Home SalesOctUK: PPI Oct, PSNB Oct,PSNCR OctNorway: GDP Q3US: GDP (Final) Q3,Corporate Profits Q3Japan: HolidayEurozone: IndustrialOrders Sep, PMIs (Flash)NovUK: BoE MPC MinutesFrance: Industry SurveyNovNorway: Labour SepUS: Durable GoodsOrders Oct, PersonalIncome & Spending Oct,UoM Sentiment (Final)Nov, FOMC MinutesUK: GDP (Prel) Q3Germany: GDP (Final)Q3, Ifo Survey NovItaly: ConsumerConfidence NovSweden: ConsumerConfidence Nov, PPI OctNeths: ProducerConfidence NovBelgium: BusinessConfidence NovUS: HolidayJapan: CGPI Oct, TertiaryIndex SepUK: PPI OctSpain: GDP (Flash) Q3Sweden: PES Labour OctHoliday: France, USGermany: PPI OctItaly: Industrial Orders SepNeths: ConsumerConfidence NovBelgium: ConsumerConfidence NovUS: Leading Indicators OctCanada: CPI OctJapan: CPI Tokyo Nov, CPINational OctFrance: ConsumerConfidence NovItaly: Retail Sales SepSpain: PPI OctDuring Week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Dec, Retail Sales Oct, Import Price Index OctSource: BNP ParibasRelease dates as at c.o.b. prior to the date of this publication. See our Daily Spotlight for any revisionsMarket Economics 20 October 2011Market Mover64www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Treasury and SAS Issuance CalendarThis section is classified as non-objective researchIn the pipeline - Treasuries:Japan: 15y Floating-rate JGB buy-backs for JPY 0.6trn and 10y Inflation-Indexed JGB buy-backs for JPY 0.15trn in Q4Italy: BTP Nov 2014 (new) to be issued in Q4Germany: In Q4, intends to issue inflation-linked federal securities (EUR 2-3bn) and reserves the right to issue foreign currency bondsUK: Index-Linked Gilt Mar 2062 0.375% (new, syndicated) in the week commencing 24 OctoberUK: Gilt Purchase Programme has resumed; to be conducted for a 4mth period; the size of the programme will be kept under review; dates orfrequency may change depending on hols and market conditionsUK: Mini-tenders in the week commencing 28 November and in the week commencing 12 December (choice of gilt on Fri 18 Nov & on Fri 2Dec respectively)UK: Plans to offer, via syndication, a new index-linked gilt (12-20y area) in H2 of NovemberFinland: Plans to arrange a EUR benchmark bond auction in Q4 (details one week prior to the auction)Czech Rep.: A syndicated euro benchmark still highly probable by the end of this yearHungary: May sell foreign-currency denominated bonds this year to prefinance 2012, depending on the international situationSlovak Rep.: No plan to issue T-bills in OctoberIn the pipeline - Agencies:EFSF: Issues initially scheduled in Q4 2011 in support of Portugal could now be issued in early 2012EFSF: Plans to issue one benchmark bond for Ireland (EUR 3bn) before year endDuring the week:UK: Index-Linked Gilt 0.375% Mar 2062 (new, syndicated)FHLMC: Second syndicated auction in October, details announced on Thursday 27 OctoberDate Day Closing Country Issues Details BNPP forecastsLocal GMT21/10 Fri 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2019 - 2021) USD 4.25-5bn24/10 Mon 12:00 03:00 Japan JGBs 10-year Enhanced-liquidity issue 286-314(*8 issues excl.)JGBs 20-year Auction for Enhanced-liquidity issueJPY 0.3tn53-93 (54 & 77 excl.)14:45 13:45 UK Gilt Purchase (12 Gilts 2015-2021) GBP 1.7bn11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2036 - 2041) USD 2.25-2.75bn25/10 Tue 14:45 13:45 UK Gilt Purchase (9 Gilts 2038-2060) GBP 1.7bnNeths DSL 3.25% 15 Jul 2015 (Off-the-run facility)DSL 4% 15 Jul 2019 (Off-the-run facility)EUR 2-3bn12:00 16:00 Canada Repurchase of 7 Cash Mgt Bonds (Dec11 to Dec12) CAD 1bn11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2017 - 2019) USD 4.25-5bn13:00 17:00 US Notes 0.25% 31 Oct 2013 (new) USD 35bn26/10 Wed 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 15 Nov 2013 JPY 2.6tn10:55 08:55 Italy CTZ 21 Oct EUR 2.5bn14:45 13:45 UK Gilt Purchase (8 Gilts 2022-2036) GBP 1.7bn13:00 17:00 US Notes 1% 31 Oct 2016 (new) USD 35bnOutright T. Coupon Sales (Mar 2014 - Oct 2014)USD 8-9bn27/10 Thu 10:55 08:55 Italy BTPeis 21 Oct EUR 1-2bn11:00 09:00 Sweden ILB 3.5% 1 Dec 2015 (# 3105) SEK 0.75bn11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2036 - 2041) USD 2.25-2.75bn13:00 17:00 US Notes 1.5% 31 Oct 2018 (new) USD 29bn28/10 Fri 10:55 08:55 Italy 3 & 10y BTPs and CCT 21 Oct EUR 6-9bn13:00 17:00 US Outright T. Coupon Sales (Oct 2013 - Feb 2014) USD 8-9bn31/10 Mon 14:45 14:45 UK Gilt Purchase12:00 11:00 Belgium OLOs 24 Oct EUR 1-2bnSlovak Rep. SLOVGB 3.5% 24 Feb 2016 (#213)EUR 0.1bn01/11 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 10-year 25 Oct JPY 2.2tn14:45 14:45 UK Gilt PurchaseDenmark DGBs 27 Oct02/11 Wed 11:00 10:00 Germany OBL 1.25% 14 Oct 2016 (Series 161) EUR 5bn14:45 14:45 UK Gilt Purchase12:00 16:00 Canada CAN 3-year 27 Oct03/11 Thu 10:30 09:30 Spain Bono 4.25% 31 Oct 2016 31 Oct EUR 3-4bn10:50 09:50 France OATs 28 Oct EUR 7-9bn10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 4.25% 7 Jun 2032 25 Oct07/11 Mon 14:45 14:45 UK Gilt Purchase08/11 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 1 Nov JPY 0.3tn11:00 10:00 Austria RAGBs 1 Nov10:30 10:30 UK Index-Linked Gilt 0.625% 22 Mar 2040 1 Nov14:45 14:45 UK Gilt PurchaseNeths DSL 3.25% 15 Jul 2021 EUR 1.5-2.5bn13:00 18:00 US Notes 3-year (new) 2 Nov USD 32bn09/11 Wed 14:45 14:45 UK Gilt Purchase12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 2-year 3 Nov13:00 18:00 US Notes 10-year (new) 2 Nov USD 24bn10/11 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 40-year 3 Nov JPY 0.4tn13:00 18:00 US Bond 30-year (new) 2 Nov USD 16bnSources: Treasuries, BNP ParibasInterest Rate Strategy 20 October 2011Market Mover65www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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Germany: On the Hook• German data
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UK: Top Of The Hill• The Septembe
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