Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Market CoverageMarket EconomicsPaul Mortimer-Lee Global Head of Market Economics London 44 20 7595 8551 paul.mortimer-lee@uk.bnpparibas.comKen Wattret Chief Eurozone Market Economist London 44 20 7595 8657 kenneth.wattret@uk.bnpparibas.comLuigi Speranza Head of Inflation & Fiscal Economics, London 44 20 7595 8322 luigi.speranza@uk.bnpparibas.comEurozone, ItalyDavid Tinsley UK, Ireland London 4420 7595 8150 david.tinsley@uk.bnpparibas.comGizem Kara Scandinavia London 44 20 7595 8783 gizem.kara@uk.bnpparibas.comDominique Barbet Eurozone, France Paris 33 1 4298 1567 dominique.barbet@bnpparibas.comJulia Coronado Chief Economist North America New York 1 212 841 2281 julia.l.coronado@americas.bnpparibas.comJeremy Lawson US New York 1 212 471-8180 Jeremy.lawson@ americas.bnpparibas.comYelena Shulyatyeva US New York 1 212 841 2258 yelena.shulyatyeva@americas.bnpparibas.comBricklin Dwyer US, Canada New York 1 212 471-7996 bricklin.dwyer@americas.bnpparibas.comRyutaro Kono Chief Economist Japan Tokyo 81 3 6377 1601 ryutaro.kono@japan.bnpparibas.comHiroshi Shiraishi Japan Tokyo 81 3 6377 1602 hiroshi.shiraishi@japan.bnpparibas.comAzusa Kato Japan Tokyo 81 3 6377 1603 azusa.kato@japan.bnpparibas.comMakiko Fukuda Japan Tokyo 81 3 6377 1605 makiko.fukuda@japan.bnpparibas.comRichard Iley Head of Asia Economics Hong Kong 852 2108 5104 richard.iley@asia.bnpparibas.comDominic Bryant Asia, Australia Hong Kong 852 2108 5105 dominic.bryant@asia.bnpparibas.comMole Hau Asia Hong Kong 852 2108 5620 mole.hau@asia.bnpparibas.comXingdong Chen Chief China Economist Beijing 86 10 6535 3327 xd.chen@asia.bnpparibas.comKen Peng Senior Economist , China China 86 10 6535 3380 ken.peng@asia.bnpparibas.comChan Kok Peng Chief Economist South East Asia Singapore 65 6210 1946 kokpeng.chan@asia.bnpparibas.comMarcelo Carvalho Head of Latin American Economics São Paulo 55 11 3841 3418 marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.comGustavo Aruda Latin American Economist São Paulo +1-212-471-6599 gustavo.arruda@amecias.bnpparibas.comNader Nazmi Latin America New York 1 212 471 8216 nader.nazmi@us.bnpparibas.comFlorencia Vazquez Latin American Economist Buenos Aires 54 11 4875 4363 florencia.vazquez@ar.bnpparibas.comMichal Dybula Central & Eastern Europe Warsaw 48 22 697 2354 michal.dybula@pl.bnpparibas.comJulia Tsepliaeva Russia & CIS Moscow 74 95 785 6022 julia.tsepliaeva@ru.bnpparibas.comSelim Cakir Chief Economist Turkey, GCC, South Africa Istanbul 90 216 635 2972 selim.cakir@teb.com.trEmre Tekmen Economist Turkey, GCC and South Africa Istanbul 90 216 635 2975 emre.tekmen@teb.com.trNazli Toragan Economist Turkey, GCC and South Africa IIstanbul 90 216 635 2986 lnazli.toraganli@teb.com.trInterest Rate StrategyCyril Beuzit Global Head of Interest Rate Strategy London 44 20 7595 8639 cyril.beuzit@uk.bnpparibas.comPatrick Jacq Europe Strategist Paris 33 1 4316 9718 patrick.jacq@bnpparibas.comHervé Cros Chief Inflation Strategist London 44 20 7595 8419 herve.cros@uk.bnpparibas.comShahid Ladha Inflation & UK Strategist London 44 20 7 595 8573 shahid.ladha@uk.bnpparibas.comAlessandro Tentori Chief Alpha Strategy Europe London 44 20 7595 8238 alessandro.tentori@uk.bnpparibas.comEric Oynoyan Europe Strategist London 44 20 7595 8613 eric.oynoyan@uk.bnpparibas.comMatteo Regesta Europe Strategist London 44 20 7595 8607 matteo.regesta@uk.bnpparibas.comIoannis Sokos Europe Strategist London 44 20 7595 8671 ioannis.sokos@uk.bnpparibas.comCamille de Courcel Europe Strategist London 44 20 7595 8295 camille.decourcel@uk.bnpparibas.comBülent Baygün Head of Interest Rate Strategy US New York 1 212 471 8043 bulent.baygun@americas.bnpparibas.comMary-Beth Fisher US Strategist New York 1 212 841 2912 mary-beth.fisher@us.bnpparibas.comAaron Kohli US Strategist New York 1 212 841 2026 aaron.kohli@americas.bnpparibas.comSuvrat Prakash US Strategist New York 1 917 472 4374 suvrat.prakash@americas.bnpparibas.comAnish Lohokare MBS Strategist New York 1 212 841 2867 anish.lohokare@americas.bnpparibas.comOlurotimi Ajibola MBS Strategist New York 1 212 8413831 olurotimi.ajibola@americas.bnpparibas.comBo Peng US Strategist New York 1 212 8412241 bo.peng@americas.bnpparibas.comTomohisa Fujiki Japan Strategist Tokyo 81 3 6377 1703 Tomohisa.fujiki@japan.bnpparibas.comHidehiko Maejima Japan Strategist Tokyo 81 3 6377 1701 Hidehiko.maejima@japan.bnpparibas.comChristian Séné Technical Analyst Paris 33 1 4316 9717 christian.séné@bnpparibas.comFX StrategyRay Attrill Head of FX Strategy – North America New York 1 212 841 2492 raymond.attrill@us.bnpparibas.comMary Nicola FX Strategist New York 1 212 841 2492 mary.nicola@americas.bnpparibas.comSteven Saywell Head of FX Strategy - Europe London 44 20 7595 8487 steven.saywell@uk.bnpparibas.comKiran Kowshik FX Strategist London 44 20 7595 1495 kiran.kowshik@bnpparibas.comJames Hellawell Quantitative Strategist London 44 20 7595 8485 james.hellawell@uk.bnpparibas.comLocal Markets FX & Interest Rate StrategyDrew Brick Head of FX & IR Strategy Asia Singapore 65 6210 3262 Drew.brick@asia.bnpparibas.comChin Loo Thio FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3263 chin.thio@asia.bnpparibas.comRobert Ryan FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3314 robert.ryan@asia.bnpparibas.comJasmine Poh FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3418 jasmine.j.poh@asia.bnpparibas.comGao Qi FX & IR Asia Strategist Shanghai 86 21 2896 2876 gao.qi@asia.bnpparibas.comBartosz Pawlowski Head of FX & IR Strategy CEEMEA London 44 20 7595 8195 Bartosz.pawlowski@uk.bnpparibas.comDina Ahmad FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist London 44 20 7 595 8620 dina.ahmad@uk.bnpparibas.comErkin Isik FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist Istanbul 90 (216) 635 29 87 erkin.isik@teb.com.trDiego Donadio FX & IR Latin America Strategist São Paulo 55 11 3841 3421 diego.donadio@@br.bnpparibas.com70
For Production and Distribution, please contact:Ann Aston, Market Economics, London. Tel: 44 20 7595 8503 Email: ann.aston@uk.bnpparibas.com,Jessica.Bakkioui, Market Economics, London. Tel: 44 20 7595 8478 Email: jessica.bakkioui@uk.bnpparibas.com,Danielle Catananzi, Interest Rate Strategy, London. Tel: 44 20 7595 4418 Email: danielle.catananzi@uk.bnpparibas.com,Roshan Kholil, FX Strategy, London. Tel: 44 20 7595 8486 Email:roshan.kholil@uk.bnpparibas.com,Martine Borde, Market Economics/Interest Rate Strategy, Paris. Tel: 33 1 4298 4144 Email martine.borde@bnpparibas.comEditors: Amanda Grantham-Hill, Interest Rate Strategy/Market Economics, London. Tel: 44 20 7595 4107 Email: amanda.grantham-hill@bnpparibas.com;Jeffrey Myhre, Interest Rate Strategy/Market Economics, New York. Tel: 212 471 8180 Email: jeffrey.myhre@us.bnpparibas.comBNP Paribas Global Fixed Income Websitewww.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.comBloombergFixed Income Research BPCM Market Economics BPECInterest Rate Strategy BPBS Forex Strategy BPFRRESEARCH DISCLAIMERS - Please see important disclosures in the text of this report.Some sections of this report have been written by our strategy teams. These sections are clearly labelled and do not purport to be anexhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which couldaffect the objectivity of this report. (Please see further important disclosures in the text of this report). These sections are amarketing communication. They are not independent investment research. They have not been prepared in accordance with legalrequirements designed to provide the independence of investment research, and are not subject to any prohibition on dealing aheadof the dissemination of investment research.The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, but norepresentation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate, complete or up to date and it should not be reliedupon as such. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other investment. Information and opinionscontained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for theexercise of judgement by any recipient, are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of theinstruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. To the fullestextent permitted by law, no BNP Paribas group company accepts any liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report aremade as of the date of this report. Unless otherwise indicated in this report there is no intention to update this report. BNP Paribas SA and itsaffiliates (collectively “BNP Paribas”) may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of any issuer or personmentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this report,including a long or short position in their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa. BNPParibas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any personmentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or otherservices (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this report. BNPParibas may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted bylaw, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNPParibas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any personmentioned in this report. Any person mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in orderto verify its factual accuracy.BNP Paribas is incorporated in France with limited liability. Registered Office 16 Boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris. This report was producedby a BNP Paribas group company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or deliveredor transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by theforegoing limitations.Certain countries within the European Economic Area:This report is solely prepared for professional clients. It is not intended for retail clients and should not be passed on to any such persons.This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch. BNP Paribas London Branch is authorised andsupervised by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details of theextent of our authorisation and regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request.This report has been approved for publication in France by BNP Paribas, a credit institution licensed as an investment services provider by the Autorité deContrôle Prudentiel whose head office is 16, Boulevard des Italiens 75009 Paris, France.This report is being distributed in Germany either by BNP Paribas London Branch or by BNP Paribas Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main, regulated by theBundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin).United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is notregistered as a US broker-dealer to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealerregistered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and other principal exchanges.BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US personsby BNP Paribas Securities Corp.Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribasnot registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions defined by article 17-3, item 1 of the Financial Instruments andExchange Law Enforcement Order. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited is a financial instruments firm registered according to the FinancialInstruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association and the Financial Futures Association of Japan.BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed toJapanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to theFinancial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan.Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris,France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Registered Institution by Hong Kong Monetary Authority for the conduct of Advising onSecurities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance.Some or all the information reported in this document may already have been published on https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com© BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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Germany: On the Hook• German data
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UK: Top Of The Hill• The Septembe
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we believe that contractions in pri
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Japan: Real Reason for ‘Turning J
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Political question of whether peopl
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Page 42 and 43: Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
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Page 54 and 55: Economic Calendar: 21 - 28 October
Page 56 and 57: Key Data PreviewChart 1: UK Public
Page 58 and 59: Key Data Preview1400120010008006004
Page 60 and 61: Key Data Preview12.510.07.55.02.50.
Page 62 and 63: Key Data PreviewChart 13: Japanese
Page 64 and 65: Economic Calendar: 31 Oct - 25 Nov3
Page 68 and 69: Economic ForecastsGDPYear 20112012(
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Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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