Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Economic ForecastsGDPYear 20112012(% y/y) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)US 1.5 0.7 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.4Eurozone 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.4 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3Japan -0.6 1.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.1 1.0 1.9 1.1 1.1World (2) 3.9 3.3 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.7Industrial ProductionYear20112012(% y/y) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)US 3.6 0.7 2.9 5.4 3.7 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.7Eurozone 3.0 -0.7 1.6 6.6 4.1 3.0 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.3 1.8Japan -2.1 3.8 2.5 -2.6 -6.8 -0.4 1.0 3.1 8.0 2.6 1.9Unemployment RateYear2011 2012(%) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)US 9.1 9.2 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.2Eurozone 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2Japan 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5CPIYear20112012(% y/y) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)US 3.2 1.8 1.8 2.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.6Eurozone 2.7 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.5Japan (Core) -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1Current Account(% GDP) ’11 (1) Year’12 (1) ’13 (1) General Government(% GDP)’11 (1) Year’12 (1) ’13 (1)US -3.1 -2.9 -2.5 US (4) -3.1 -2.9 -2.5Eurozone -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 Eurozone -0.8 -0.6 -0.6Japan 2.1 1.3 1.0 Japan 2.1 1.3 1.0Interest Rate ForecastsYear20112012(%) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 (1) Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)USFed Funds Rate 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.253-month Rate 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.30 0.25 0.36 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.302-year yield 0.20 0.35 0.75 0.83 0.47 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.3510-year yield 2.20 3.00 3.25 3.47 3.16 1.72 2.20 2.50 2.60 2.75 3.002y/10y Spread (bp) 200 265 250 264 269 152 200 230 235 245 265EurozoneRefinancing Rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.003-month Rate 1.00 1.10 1.30 1.24 1.55 1.54 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.102-year yield (5) 0.40 1.00 1.75 1.80 1.61 0.41 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.85 1.0010-year yield (5) 2.00 3.00 3.25 3.35 3.01 1.67 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.002y/10y Spread (bp) (5) 160 200 150 156 140 127 160 175 180 190 200JapanO/N Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.103-month Rate 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.352-year yield 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.2010-year yield 0.90 1.15 1.30 1.26 1.14 0.99 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.152y/10y Spread (bp) 75 95 105 104 96 85 75 85 95 95 95Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) BNPP estimates based on country weights in the IMF World Economic Outlook UpdateApril 2011 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated (5) German benchmarkSource: BNP ParibasMarket Economics 20 October 2011Market Mover68www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com