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Adaptation Turning PointsIntroductionAdaptation has become an integral part ofclimate change policy. The ultimate scale of thechallenge will largely be defined by thedevelopment of the world’s economy andgreenhouse gas emissions reductions. Both areuncertain, suggesting that planners may have torespond to rises in global mean temperature of4°C or more (Parry et al., 2009). Adapting to suchconditions would be challenging at best(Smith etal., 2011), and may face practicallyinsurmountable physical limits in many placesdue to loss of ecosystem services andinteracting impacts. Climate change shifts thesustainability challenge from preserving naturalresources for future generations to strengtheningresilience and adaptive capacity in socialecologicalsystems. The challenge for policymaking and sustainable resources managementshifts from conservation to managing changeand adaptation.The European Commission FP7 fundedMEDIATION project (Methodology for EffectiveDecision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION) isadvancing the analysis of adaptation issuesthrough its objectives of analysing impacts,vulnerability and adaptation, and promotingknowledge sharing through a MEDIATIONAdaptation Platform (http://www.mediationproject.eu/platform/).To complement theinformation on the Platform, a series of PolicyBriefing Notes have been produced on DecisionSupport Methods for Climate ChangeAdaptation.This Policy Briefing Note (Note 9) provides asummary of the assessment of adaptationturning points. It provides a brief synthesis ofthe approach, its strengths and weaknesses, therelevance for adaptation, how it considersuncertainty, and presents case study examples.It is stressed that this note only provides anoverview: more detailed information is availablein MEDIATION deliverables, and sources andlinks on the MEDIATION Adaptation Platform.Description of the MethodThe assessment of adaptation turning pointsstarts from the perspective that managementaims to sustain conditions for society and nature.A critical threshold is reached, the moment thatclimate change renders policy untenable orresults in conditions that society perceives asundesirable. At such a threshold situation, it isnot only important to know the extent of theimpact, but at least equally important is to knowwhen and how likely it is that this situationoccurs. Thus the analysis focusses on thequestion of whether or not current managementis sustainable under a changing climate, andwhen adjustments are required.Assessing climate impacts in terms of thefiniteness of policy objectives has the importantconsequence that it invites to elicit and discussthe thresholds that society should not transgress.Ultimately, this question is a normative one – howmuch change and risk is society willing toaccept? Many studies of adaptation view thelegal and political system as boundaryconditions. Yet, by focusing on those boundariesand how to move them, greater realisation ofadaptation can be achieved (c.f. Cosens andWilliams, 2012; Adger et al., 2013). The focus onthresholds highlights that adaptation operates attwo distinct levels: changes to the physicalenvironment, and changes to the decisionenvironment, including policy objectives. An oftenoverlooked strategy in adaptation planning is foractors to accept changes and adjust policyobjectives accordingly.Starting from the threshold situation where thecurrent management strategy can no longermeet its objectives, the concept of ‘adaptationtipping points’ was advanced for a policy studyof long-term water management in theNetherlands (Kwadijk et al., 2010). It has provensuccessful in assessing and communicatingwater related risks, and it has become one of thescientific concepts underpinning the Dutch longtermwater strategy (Haasnoot et al., 2013). Asimilar planning approach was developed andtested for flood risk in the Thames estuary(Lavery and Donovan, 2005; Smith et al., 2011).Reported studies so far have focused onhydrological and technical thresholds for policysuccess (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Reeder and1