Key Messages• There is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the appraisal ofoptions, as adaptation moves from theory topractice. In response, a number of exist<strong>in</strong>gand new decision support tools are be<strong>in</strong>gconsidered, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g approaches thataddress uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty.• The FP7 MEDIATION project has undertaken adetailed review of these tools, and has testedthem <strong>in</strong> a series of case studies. It hasassessed their applicability for adaptation andanalysed how they consider uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. Thef<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs have been used to provide<strong>in</strong>formation and guidance for the MEDIATIONAdaptation Platform and are summarised <strong>in</strong> aset of policy brief<strong>in</strong>g notes.• The review has covered a range of traditionaland new decision support methods. It hasconsidered the exist<strong>in</strong>g tools used <strong>in</strong> policyappraisal, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g cost-benefit analysis,cost-effectiveness analysis and multi-criteriaanalysis, as well as new techniques that morefully address uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g realoptions analysis, robust decision mak<strong>in</strong>g,portfolio analysis, iterative adaptivemanagement / adaptation turn<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts, andthe analytic hierarchy process, as wellcomplementary tools that assist <strong>in</strong> adaptivecapacity and socio-<strong>in</strong>stitutional analysis, suchas social network analysis.• The review has analysed the strengths andweakness of these approaches. This providesimportant <strong>in</strong>sights <strong>in</strong>to the relevance of thetools and their potential use for different typesof adaptation problem.• It has also considered previous applications ofthe methods to the adaptation context havebeen reviewed, as well as the f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs of theMEDIATION case studies.• The review work and case studies provideuseful <strong>in</strong>formation on the types of adaptationproblem types where these approaches mightbe appropriate, as well as data needs,resource requirements and good practicelessons.• Further guidance is given on each of thesetechniques <strong>in</strong> a brief<strong>in</strong>g note, available on theMEDIATION Adaptation Platform.
Method OverviewIntroductionThere is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g policy <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the appraisalof options, as adaptation moves from theory topractice. At the same time, it is recognised thatthe appraisal of climate change adaptation<strong>in</strong>volves a number of major ch<strong>all</strong>enges,particularly the consideration of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. Inresponse, a number of exist<strong>in</strong>g and new decisionsupport tools are be<strong>in</strong>g considered foradaptation.The European Commission FP7 fundedMEDIATION project (Methodology for EffectiveDecision-mak<strong>in</strong>g on Impacts and AdaptaTION) islook<strong>in</strong>g at adaptation decision support tools, <strong>in</strong>l<strong>in</strong>e with its objectives to advance the analysis ofimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and topromote knowledge shar<strong>in</strong>g through theMEDIATION Adaptation Platform(http://www.mediation-project.eu/platform/).To complement the <strong>in</strong>formation on the Platform,a series of <strong>Technical</strong> <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Notes</strong> havebeen produced on Decision Support Methods forClimate Change Adaptation.This note, <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> Note 1: MethodOverview, provides a summary of the decisionsupport tools, their potential relevance foradaptation and guidance on their potentialapplicability.It covers a range of traditional decision supporttools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectivenessanalysis and multi-criteria analysis) as wellalternative approaches that more fully captureuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty (real options analysis, robust decisionmak<strong>in</strong>g, portfolio analysis and iterative risk(adaptive) management, adaptation turn<strong>in</strong>gpo<strong>in</strong>ts and analytic hierarchy process). It also<strong>in</strong>cludes complementary tools that can assist <strong>in</strong>adaptation assessment <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g social networkanalysis.Adaptation Decision SupportWith the <strong>in</strong>creased focus <strong>in</strong> Europe towardsadaptation implementation, there is a greaterneed to consider the approaches and methodsfor assess<strong>in</strong>g adaptation. However, policyanalysts, consultants and researchers arecurrently confronted with a large number ofconcepts, methods, frameworks, guidel<strong>in</strong>es andtoolboxes to choose from.The MEDIATION <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> Note on ‘Choos<strong>in</strong>gSalient Approaches and Methods for Adaptation’provides an overview for the decision supportstructure used <strong>in</strong> the MEDIATION AdaptationPlatform. This recognises that there are manytypes of adaptation ch<strong>all</strong>enges and problemtypes, and that there is little to no guidance onwhich approach is appropriate for each of thesedifferent ch<strong>all</strong>enges. In response, MEDIATIONhas developed a more precise and specificlanguage for describ<strong>in</strong>g the various ch<strong>all</strong>engesand methods for adaptation, and developed adiagnostic framework for problem-orientedadaptation research that matches adaptationch<strong>all</strong>enges to appropriate approaches andmethods for address<strong>in</strong>g them, us<strong>in</strong>g a series ofdecision trees.The MEDIATION framework identifies five generalstages as high-level entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for adaptationresearch and practice, shown <strong>in</strong> Figure 1 below.The approaches and methods salient with<strong>in</strong> eachstage, and the empirical and theoretical criteria forchoos<strong>in</strong>g them are expla<strong>in</strong>ed on the AdaptationPlatform, and <strong>in</strong> the overview brief<strong>in</strong>g note.Additional <strong>in</strong>formation on each of the methods,<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g case study examples, is <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> aseries of separate <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Notes</strong> (2 – 9).Figure 1. The Stages of Adaptation and the Entry Po<strong>in</strong>t forDecision Support Tools.1