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DecisionSupport 1Table 4. Potential Applications of the Tools to Adaptation.Decision Potential applicability Most useful when Potential usesSupport Toolof approachCost-BenefitAnalysisShort-term assessment,particularly for market sectors.– Climate probabilities known.– Climate sensitivity smallcompared to costs/benefits.–Good data exists for majorcost/benefit components.Low and no regret optionappraisal (short-term).As a decision support tool withiniterative risk managementCost-EffectivenessAnalysisShort-term assessment, formarket and non-market sectors.Particularly relevant where clearheadline indicator and dominantimpact (less so cross sector).– As for CBA, but for nonmonetarymetrics;– Agreement on sectoral socialobjective (e.g. acceptable risksof flooding).Low and no regret optionappraisal (short-term).As a decision support tool withiniterative risk management.Multi-criteriaanalysisProject and policy (programme)level. Tool for appraising option,or complementary tool (e.g. toCBA) to consider qualitative ornon-market elements.– Mix of qualitative andquantification data.Scoping of potential options.Early analysis of uncertainty orother adaptation characteristicsof options.Complementary tool to addressnon-market / non-monetaryattributes.Real OptionsAnalysisMajor project based analysis.Short-term assessment includinglong-term uncertainty.Comparing flexible vs. nonflexible options, or value ofinformation.– Large irreversible capitaldecisions.– Climate risk probabilities knownor good information.– Good quality data for majorcost/benefit components.Economic analysis of majorinvestment decisions, notablymajor flood defences, waterstorage, particularly whereexisting adaptation deficit,potential for learning and/orpotential for flexibility withinproject.Robust DecisionMakingProject and programme/ – High uncertainty of climatestrategy analysis especially under change signal.conditions of high uncertainty. – Mix of quantitative andNear-term investment with long qualitative information.life times (e.g. infrastructure) – Non-market sectors (e.g.ecosystems, health).Identifying low and no regretoptions. Testing near-termoptions or strategies (e.g. infrastructure)across a large numberof futures, or climate projections.Comparing technical and nontechnicalsets of options.Portfolio AnalysisProject based analysis ofcombinations of options,including potential for projectand strategy formulation.– Adaptation actions likely to becomplementary in reducingclimate risks.– Climate risk probabilitiesknown or good informationDesigning portfolio mixes as partof iterative pathways.AdaptiveManagement /Adaptation TurningPointsProject and strategy /programme level. To developadaptation pathways that allowiterative plans.– High uncertainty.– Clear risk thresholds andindicators.Flexible, but especially mediumlong-termwhere potential tolearn.As an overall iterative framework,within which additional decisionsupport tools used.Analytic HierarchyProcessProject and policy (programme)level.– Mix of quantitative andqualitative information.– Mix of qualitative andquantification data.– Need for consensus building.Scoping of potential options.Early analysis of uncertainty orother adaptation characteristicsof options.Social NetworkAnalysisProject to national level foradaptive capacity, socioinstitutionalaspects andidentifying barriers to adaptation.– Adaptation decisions involvingmany different stakeholders.Analysis of adaptive capacity,information and knowledgeflows, decision frameworks.14