Download all Technical Policy Briefing Notes in a single ... - Mediation

Method OverviewThe advantage of the approach is that ratherthan taking an irreversible decision now aboutthe ‘best’ adaptation option – which may or maynot be needed depending on the level of climatechange that arises – it encourages decisionmakers to ask “what if” and develop a flexibleapproach, where decisions are made over time,and these plans adjusted as the evidenceemerges (Reeder and Ranger, 2011). This allowsthe right decisions are taken at the right time (EA,2011), such that additional options can bebrought forward– or delayed to a later timeperiod – depending on how climate changeactually evolves. The disadvantage is that theidentification of suitable risk thresholds can bedifficult, especially when there are multiple risksor cross sectoral dimensions involved. Like manyof the approaches above, it can be time andresource intensive, especially when addressingmultiple scenarios in an economic framework.Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a form ofmulti-criteria analysis (see earlier) thatundertakes pairwise comparisons using expertjudgements to derive priority scales (Saaty,1980). The method allows the analysis oftangible and intangible elements together,allowing these to be traded off against eachother in a decision-making process.The method is applied by making comparisonsusing a scale of absolute judgements thatrepresents how much one element dominatesanother for a given attribute. The derived priorityscales are then synthesised and the variousweighted scores are aggregated. The approachis very flexible and can be adapted to specificcontexts. Criteria (or attributes) and sub-criteriacan be decided in advance by experts or througha participatory process with stakeholders. Thereis no upper limit to the number of criteria or subcriteria,except for the time that is then requiredto do the comparison.The approach can be used to choose options, torank and/or prioritise them, and for resourceallocation and conflict resolution. The tool has aparticular relevance where important elements ofthe decision are difficult to quantify or compare,or where different expertise, goals, and worldviewsare a barrier to consensus-building andcommunication.AHP has been used in a wide variety of fields.The approach has high relevance for theapplication to adaptation, as it can evaluateoptions in situations of high complexity,considering different time horizons, uncertainty,multiple and interdependent variables, andsubjectivity, all of which requires multidimensionaltrade-offs. It allows the comparisonof diverse elements that are often difficult tomeasure in a structured and systematic wayusing a scale, though this inevitably involves adegree of subjectivity.Socio-Institutional AnalysisAlongside the focus on uncertainty, there is alsoa growing recognition of the role of socioinstitutionalissues in climate adaptation. TheIPCC special report on extreme events (IPCC,2012) confirms the viewpoint of adaptation as asocio-institutional process, defining adaptationas a process of adjustment to the actual orexpected climate and its effects, in order tomoderate harm or exploit beneficialopportunities.There is an increasing body of research on therole of socio-institutional networks in climateadaptation. Berkhout et al., (2006) found thatmany of the resources required for carrying outthe process of adaptation lie outside theboundary of a particular organization, and Moserand Ekstrom (2010) report that barriers toadaptation often arise from institutional andcognitive constraints. Downing (2012) contrastsa predict-and-provide viewpoint with a processbasedunderstanding of adaptation.These studies highlight that the inter-relationshipsbetween organisations are influential indetermining how (and if) adaptation processeswill occur. Following from this, it is important toidentify the existing socio-institutional landscapeand feedback processes in climate adaptationresearch, to speed up the necessary ‘climateadaptedroutines and capability to be developed’(Berkhout et al., 2006).These findings have led to an increased interestin adaptation governance, using behavioural andinstitutional analysis to understand andovercome individual and social constraints. Thisprocess-based understanding requires a‘mapping’ of the problem framing and actors.One such approach for understanding theseissues is Social Network Analysis (SNA). SNA7