Download all Technical Policy Briefing Notes in a single ... - Mediation

Robust Decision Makingit more closely to the iterative adaptationmanagement concepts of monitoring, research,evaluation and learning. The informal applicationfor adaptation focuses on analysing climateuncertainty only, i.e. surrounding climate modelprojections or climate information.Strengths and WeaknessesA key part of the MEDIATION project has been toidentify the strengths and weaknesses ofdifferent approaches. A summary of these ispresented below.The main strength of the approach is that it helpsmake informed adaptation decisions possiblewithout relying on probabilistic predictions offuture climate change. Indeed, it is particularlyvaluable where future uncertainties are poorlycharacterised and/or probabilistic information islimited or not available.In such cases RDM provides a structured way ofassessing performance and identifying robustoptions in the face of uncertainty, whichconventional approaches do not allow. Theformal method provides the analytical power totest many strategies and sources of uncertaintyand identify trade-offs, synergies and robustdecisions.The approach can assess robustness (i.e.performance) using various metrics, includingphysical effectiveness or economic efficiency. Ittherefore offers greater flexibility in assessingmarket and non-market sectors, and can avoidvaluation of benefits enhancing applicabilitywhere valuation is difficult or contentious (e.g.ecosystems).The potential weaknesses relate to the lack ofquantitative probabilities associated withscenarios, which can make the analysis a moresubjective decision, influenced by stakeholders’perceptions.The (formal) application of the approach alsoinvolves very high demands for quantitativeinformation and computing power for modellingand analysis, and requires high expert input.Some of these aspects can be overcome bymore informal applications of the approach,particularly when limited to the analysis ofrobustness against climate model projections,though this then negates the benefits ofconsidering wider uncertainty and identifyingcomprehensive robustness (and a result, keyvulnerabilities (particularly those that accumulateor are cumulative) may go undetected.Case StudiesThe MEDIATION study has reviewed existingliterature examples that have applied RobustDecision Making to a number of adaptation casestudies.A number of these case studies are summarisedin the box below, including an example of oneformal and one informal application.Key strengthsThe strength of the RDM lies in the analyticalpower of testing many options or strategies andin the identification of robustness.Applicable under situations of uncertainty, whereprobabilistic information is low or missing, orclimate uncertainty is high.Potential weaknessesThe lack of quantitative probabilities can make itmore subjective, influenced by stakeholders’perceptions.The formal application has a high demand forquantitative information, computing power, andrequires a high degree of expert knowledge.Can work with physical or economic metrics,enhancing potential for application across nonmarketsectors.3