Download all Technical Policy Briefing Notes in a single ... - Mediation

DecisionSupport 9Figure 2 illustrates how potential adaptationoptions can be combined into adaptationpathways. This is particularly useful foradaptation options with a longer decision andimplementation lifetime (c.f. Smith et al., 2011). InFigure 2 each option is effective for a distinctiverange of sea level rise after which a shift toanother option is needed (indicated by arrows).Pathways are implemented depending onobserved climate change or improvedprojections. The possibility to switch betweenadaptation options in response to newinformation is a measure of flexibility.Strengths and WeaknessesA key part of the MEDIATION project has been toidentify the strengths and weaknesses ofdifferent approaches for adaptation. Table 1 listsstrengths and weaknesses of an assessment ofadaptation turning points.A strength is that the focus on conditions thatsociety perceives as undesirable helps to identifystakeholders, policy plans and the spatial andtemporal boundaries of the assessment. Startingthe assessment from an existing policy processfacilitates the engagement of actors and providean well-communicable starting point. Yet acomprehensive analysis of climate changeimpacts and possible adaptation turning pointsmay require putting this policy process in a widerperspective, including the exploration of thevarious ways stakeholders frame the issues to beaddressed. Another strength is that assessmentof adaptation turning points allows for nestingadaptation options within a longer time frame.The concept can also be used to assessthresholds in taking adaptive action.A weakness is that policy goals are not alwaysclearly defined, especially with respect topotential impacts of climate change onecosystems. Turning points for engineeredsystems (like a coast protected by dikes) arerelatively well delimited by norms and standards.For ecological systems it often is more difficult toformulate thresholds. Thresholds that have beenincluded in policy (such as water temperatureranges) may ultimately not be indicative forecological success or failure (e.g. as in the casestudy for salmon on the next page). In any case,a statement about whether an adaptation turningpoint will be reached will always have to indicateclearly with respect to which set of policyobjectives and societal preferences.Table 1: Strengths and weaknesses of the adaptation turning point assessmentsKey strengths• Can synthesize available information for theprioritization of research and adaptationplanning.• Is more policy-oriented and stakeholdermotivated than typical impact and vulnerabilityassessments. Actors define stakes to beconsidered.• Is flexible in considering a range of socialeconomicobjectives.• Uses scenarios not to predict the future, but todelineate uncertainties.• Encourages discussion with society about(un)acceptable change and definition of criticalindicator values.Potential weaknesses• Focuses on existing management objectives.Unknown impacts and new challenges may beoverlooked.• Gains complexity with multiple drivers wherethere is an indirect link with climate change. Atpresent only relatively simple / driverthresholds have been identified with sufficientcertainty for policy support.• Requires identification of social-politicalthresholds that are often ill-defined.• Loses simplicity for communication whenthresholds are less-well defined and whenturning points have multiple drivers.4