Key Messages• There is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the appraisal ofoptions, as adaptation moves from theory topractice. In response, a number of exist<strong>in</strong>gand new decision support tools are be<strong>in</strong>gconsidered, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g methods that addressuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty.• The FP7 MEDIATION project has undertaken adetailed review of these tools, and has testedthem <strong>in</strong> a series of case studies. It hasassessed their applicability for adaptation andanalysed how they consider uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. Thef<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs have been used to provide<strong>in</strong>formation and guidance for the MEDIATIONAdaptation Platform and are summarised <strong>in</strong> aset of policy brief<strong>in</strong>g notes.• One of the tools widely recommended foradaptation is Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA).MCA is an approach that <strong>all</strong>ows considerationof both quantitative and qualitative data <strong>in</strong> therank<strong>in</strong>g of alternative options.• The approach provides a systematic methodfor assess<strong>in</strong>g and scor<strong>in</strong>g options aga<strong>in</strong>st arange of decision criteria, some of which areexpressed <strong>in</strong> physical or monetary units, andsome which are qualitative. The variouscriteria can then be weighted to provide anover<strong>all</strong> rank<strong>in</strong>g of options. These steps areundertaken us<strong>in</strong>g stakeholder consultationand/or expert <strong>in</strong>put.• MCA has been widely applied <strong>in</strong> theenvironmental doma<strong>in</strong>. It is also used as acomplementary tool to support cost-benefitanalysis, to consider the performance ofoptions aga<strong>in</strong>st criteria that may be difficult tovalue or <strong>in</strong>volve qualitative aspects.• The approach has high relevance foradaptation. Criteria can be <strong>in</strong>cluded toconsider uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty or various elements ofgood adaptation, and the approach br<strong>in</strong>gs theflexibility to work with qualitative <strong>in</strong>formation,which is particularly useful given there areoften data gaps.• The review has considered the strengths andweakness of the approach for adaptation. Thema<strong>in</strong> strength is that it <strong>all</strong>ows consideration ofboth quantitative and qualitative datatogether, and can compare monetary andnon-monetary criteria directly. This <strong>all</strong>ows theconsideration of a much broader set of criteriathan other approaches.• The potential weaknesses <strong>in</strong>volve the fact thatthe scor<strong>in</strong>g and weight<strong>in</strong>g can be quitesubjective, <strong>in</strong>fluenced by the stakeholders<strong>in</strong>volved <strong>in</strong> the process. The consideration ofuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty is also usu<strong>all</strong>y more qualitative.• Previous applications of MCA for adaptationhave been reviewed, and adaptation casestudies are summarised. MCA has been usedas the ma<strong>in</strong> decision support tool <strong>in</strong> earlynational adaptation policy analysis, but hasalso been used alongside CBA <strong>in</strong> adaptationproject appraisal to consider broader criteriaand aspects.• The review and case studies provide useful<strong>in</strong>formation on the types of adaptationproblem types where MCA might beappropriate, as well as data needs, resourcerequirements and good practice lessons.MCA is particularly applicable <strong>in</strong> areas wherequantification is difficult, or for sectors wherebroader objectives are important. Theapproach is considered particularly useful toidentify promis<strong>in</strong>g options, which can then besubject to more detailed appraisal.
Multi-Criteria AnalysisIntroductionThere is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g policy <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the appraisalof options, as adaptation moves from theory topractice. At the same time, it is recognised thatthe appraisal of climate change adaptation<strong>in</strong>volves a number of major ch<strong>all</strong>enges,particularly the consideration of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. Inresponse, a number of exist<strong>in</strong>g and new decisionsupport tools are be<strong>in</strong>g considered foradaptation.The European Commission FP7 fundedMEDIATION project (Methodology for EffectiveDecision-mak<strong>in</strong>g on Impacts and AdaptaTION) islook<strong>in</strong>g at adaptation decision support tools, <strong>in</strong>l<strong>in</strong>e with its objectives to advance the analysis ofimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and topromote knowledge shar<strong>in</strong>g through the<strong>Mediation</strong> Adaptation Platform(http://www.mediation-project.eu/platform/). Tocomplement the <strong>in</strong>formation on the Platform, aseries of <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Notes</strong> have beenproduced on Decision Support Methods forClimate Change Adaptation.An overview of <strong>all</strong> the decision support toolsreviewed is provided <strong>in</strong> <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> Note 1:Method Overview, which summarises eachmethod, discusses the potential relevance foradaptation and provides guidance on theirpotential applicability. The methods considered<strong>in</strong>clude exist<strong>in</strong>g appraisal tools (cost-benefitanalysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and multicriteriaanalysis), as well as techniques that morefully address uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty (real options analysis,robust decision mak<strong>in</strong>g, portfolio analysis anditerative risk (adaptive) management). It also<strong>in</strong>cludes complementary tools that can assist <strong>in</strong>adaptation assessment, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g analytichierarchy process, social network analysis andadaptation turn<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts. Additional <strong>in</strong>formationon each method is presented <strong>in</strong> a separate<strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Notes</strong> (2 – 10).This <strong>Policy</strong> Brief (Note 6) provides a summary ofmulti-criteria analysis. It provides a briefsynthesis of the approach, its strengths andweaknesses, the relevance for adaptation, how itconsiders uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, and presents case studyexamples. It is stressed that this note onlyprovides an overview: more detailed <strong>in</strong>formationis available <strong>in</strong> MEDIATION deliverables, andsources and l<strong>in</strong>ks on the <strong>Mediation</strong> AdaptationPlatform.Description of the MethodMCA is an approach that <strong>all</strong>ows consideration ofboth quantitative and qualitative data <strong>in</strong> therank<strong>in</strong>g of alternative options.The approach provides a systematic method forassess<strong>in</strong>g and scor<strong>in</strong>g options aga<strong>in</strong>st a range ofdecision criteria, some of which are expressed <strong>in</strong>physical or monetary units, and some which arequalitative. The various criteria can then beweighted to provide an over<strong>all</strong> rank<strong>in</strong>g ofoptions. These steps are undertaken us<strong>in</strong>gstakeholder consultation and/or expert <strong>in</strong>put.The approach identifies alternative options,selects criteria and scores options aga<strong>in</strong>st these,then assigns weights to each criterion to providea weighted sum that is used to rank options(Janssen and Van Herwijnen, 2006). The process<strong>all</strong>ows the weights (for each criterion) to reflectthe preferences of the decision-makers and theweighted sum of the different criteria is used torank the options.MCA has been widely applied for rank<strong>in</strong>g variousalternatives, especi<strong>all</strong>y <strong>in</strong> the environmentaldoma<strong>in</strong>. It is often <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> guidance as one ofa number of potential tools for option appraisal(e.g. as for [regulatory] impact assessment, EC,2005). It can be used for strategy level analysisor for <strong>in</strong>dividual projects or <strong>in</strong>vestment decisions.It is also sometimes used as a complementarytool to support cost-benefit analysis, to considerthe performance of options aga<strong>in</strong>st criteria thatmay be difficult to value or <strong>in</strong>volve qualitativeaspects. Such applications <strong>in</strong>clude support<strong>in</strong>gdecision analysis for transport appraisal(Dodgson et al, 2000).A simplified example is <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> the boxbelow.• The approach <strong>in</strong>volves a number of commonsteps.• To identify the objectives and importantdecision criteria.• To identify potential options. Note thatstakeholder consultation is often used toidentify the most important options.• Identify relevant criteria to assess the optionsaga<strong>in</strong>st. The number of criteria can range froma few key criteria to twenty or more criteria,though a higher the number of criteria1