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Download all Technical Policy Briefing Notes in a single ... - Mediation

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DecisionSupport 5Discussion and ApplicabilityThe review and case studies provide a number ofpractical lessons on the application of PortfolioAnalysis to adaptation. They provide useful<strong>in</strong>formation on the types of adaptation problemtypes where the technique might be appropriate,as well as data needs, resource requirementsand good practice examples.Clearly PA is a key tool for help<strong>in</strong>g to identify andanalyse alternative portfolios of adaptationoptions. It has a clear application <strong>in</strong> cases whereadaptation actions are likely to becomplementary <strong>in</strong> reduc<strong>in</strong>g climate risks. Thetechnique is not relevant when one optionaddresses the full range of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> climateimpacts.Portfolio Analysis has a high resonance with theconcepts of iterative risk management, andaddresses uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty by encourag<strong>in</strong>gdiversification (a key part of risk management)with the use of portfolio mixes. It can be used foreconomic analysis, but can also work with nonmonetary(physical) metrics and therefore can beapplied <strong>in</strong> non-market sectors, such as forecosystem based adaptation (as <strong>in</strong> the forestcase study <strong>in</strong> the box).However, the approach requires benefits to beexpressed <strong>in</strong> quantitative terms, either aseconomic values or physical benefits, thus it ismore applicable <strong>in</strong> cases where data availabilityis reasonable.Furthermore, the application of the techniquerequires probabilities, which makes it moreapplicable to cases where climate <strong>in</strong>formation isgood, and some <strong>in</strong>formation on climateuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty exists.and it is therefore good practice to take these<strong>in</strong>to account with<strong>in</strong> the PA analysis.ReferencesAerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W., van der Veen, A.,Krywkow, J. & Werners, S. (2008) Deal<strong>in</strong>g withuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> flood management throughdiversification. Ecology and Society, 13, 41.Crowe K. A. and Parker, W. H. (2008) Us<strong>in</strong>gportfolio theory to guide reforestation andrestoration under climate change scenarios.Climatic Change 89: pp.355-370.Hunt, A. (2009) Economic Aspects of ClimateChange Impacts and Adaptation <strong>in</strong> the UK. PhDThesis. University of Bath.IPCC, 2012: Manag<strong>in</strong>g the Risks of ExtremeEvents and Disasters to Advance ClimateChange Adaptation. A Special Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Field, C.B., et al (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA,582 pp.Markowitz, H. M. (1952) Portfolio selection.Journal of F<strong>in</strong>ance 7: pp.77-91.Further Read<strong>in</strong>gand Reference SourcesMEDIATION <strong>Policy</strong> <strong>Brief<strong>in</strong>g</strong> Note 1: MethodOverview.The formal application is data and resource<strong>in</strong>tensive, requir<strong>in</strong>g a high degree of expertknowledge, which is also a factor <strong>in</strong> consider<strong>in</strong>gapplicability.F<strong>in</strong><strong>all</strong>y, <strong>in</strong> consider<strong>in</strong>g the application of portfolioanalysis to adaptation, a number of goodpractice lessons are highlighted. As identified <strong>in</strong>the second case study on flood risks, there canbe issues of <strong>in</strong>ter-dependence between options,6

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