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DecisionSupport 3Discussion and ApplicabilityThe review and case studies provide a number ofpractical lessons on the application of robustdecision making to adaptation. They provideuseful information on the types of adaptationproblem types where RDM might be appropriate,as well as data needs, resource requirementsand good practice.into quantitative scenario testing, the greater thedegree of climate model uncertainty explored,the better (i.e. multi-model and multi-scenarioanalysis, including issue of downscaling, andincluding variability as well as trends). Whereresource constraints are high, such exercisescan prove valuable for helping to identify morerobust solutions and moving towards adaptivemanagement under high uncertainty.RDM is particularly applicable under situations ofhigh uncertainty, where probabilistic informationis low or missing.This is reflected in its use for water resourcestudies, where the uncertainty is often large(even in terms of the sign of future precipitationchanges) from the climate models, combinedwith other major uncertainties in relation tosupply and demand.The RDM approach can use physical oreconomic information, that it has broadapplicability from detailed economic appraisalthrough to the consideration of non-marketsectors where valuation may be challenging. Thepotential for stakeholder inputs also allowsapplication where quantitative information is low.RDM has a particular application in identifyinglow and no regret options, i.e. in relation to neartermadaptation strategies that are also likely toenhance long-term resilience (through theanalysis of robustness). Indeed, the case studieshighlight that these low regret options oftenemerge from the application. It also has potentialto consider how near-term infrastructureinvestment performs against long-term future(uncertain) scenarios.Ideally the approach is used to consider multiplesources of uncertainty, not just climate change,but this does increase the level of analysis, andthe formal approach (using computer interfaces)is technically complex and data and resourceintensive, requiring a high degree of expertknowledge.The application to climate change alonetherefore provides a ‘light-touch’ and enables thetesting of options against climate uncertainty.In such applications, which reduce the approach6
Robust Decision MakingReferencesDessai et al., 2009. Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In Adapting to Climate Change:Thresholds, Values, Governance, eds. W. Neil Adger, Irene Lorenzoni and Karen L. O’Brien. Publishedby Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press 2009.Dessai S; and Hulme M (2007) Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate changeuncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England, GlobalEnvironmental Change, 17, pp.59-72. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.005.Groves, D. G., Lempert, R., Knopman, D., and Berry, S. (2008a). “Preparing for an Uncertain FutureClimate in the Inland Empire – Identifying Robust Water Management Strategies.” DB-550-NSF,RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.Groves, D.G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R.J., Berry, S.H., and Wainfan, L., 2008b. Presentinguncertainty about climate change to water-resource managers: a summary of workshops with theInland Empire Utilities Agency. RAND, 2008.Groves, D. G. and Lempert, R. J. (2007): A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios.Global Environmental Change. 17: 73-85.Lempert et al., 2003. Shaping the next one hundred years: new methods for quantitative, long-termpolicy analysis. Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes. RAND, 2003. SantaMonica, CA. ISBN 0-8330-3275-5.Lempert and Groves, 2010. Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climatechange for water management agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting & SocialChange, 77, 960-974.Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S.C. (2003), Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: NewMethods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis, RAND, Santa Monica, CA: i-187.Further Reading and Reference SourcesMEDIATION Policy Briefing Note 1: Method Overview.7
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