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DecisionSupport 9Adaptation Turning Pointsclimate change induces policy failure andalternative strategies have to be considered. Wecall this situation an ‘adaptation turning point’.The assessment of adaptation turning pointsprovides an important entry point for a dialoguebetween science and policy about why peoplecare, how much stress a system can absorbbefore an unacceptable situation is reached,when this is likely to happen, and what can bedone. After projecting an adaptation turningpoint, actors need to search for new options.The identification of turning points helps inmapping practical adaptation pathways that pulltogether information on available options andpath-dependencies. These encourage taking thenecessary short-term actions to sustain thecurrent system, whilst keeping options open forplanning longer-term activities and morefundamental system change that may berequired depending on how time unfolds.It is the combination of scientific underpinningand practical application that makes anassessment of adaptation turning points andadaptation pathways attractive for furtheringadaptation.ReferencesAdger, W. N., T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, C. Murphyand J. Sweeney (2013) Changing socialcontracts in climate-change adaptation. NatureClim. Change 3 (4), 330-333.Bölscher, T., E. van Slobbe, M. T. H. van Vliet andS. E. Werners (2013) Adaptation turning points inriver restoration? The Rhine salmon case.Sustainability 5 (6), 2288-2304.Brown, C. (2011) Decision-scaling for RobustPlanning and Policy under Climate Uncertainty.World Resources Report. Washington DC, US.Cash, D. W., J. C. Borck and A. G. Patt (2006)Countering the Loading-Dock Approach toLinking Science and Decision Making. Science,Technology & Human Values 31 (4), 465-494.Cash, D. W., W. C. Clark, F. Alcock, N. M.Dickson, N. Eckley, D. H. Guston, J. Jäger and R.B. Mitchell (2003) Knowledge systems forsustainable development. Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America 100 (14), 8086-8091.Church, J. A., N. J. White, T. Aarup, W. S. Wilson,P. L. Woodworth, C. M. Domingues, J. R. Hunterand K. Lambeck (2008) Understanding globalsea levels: past, present and future.Sustainability Science 3 (1), 9-22.Cosens, B. A. and M. K. Williams (2012)Resilience and Water Governance: AdaptiveGovernance in the Columbia River Basin.Ecology and Society 17 (4), 3.Downing, T. E. (2012) Views of the frontiers inclimate change adaptation economics. WIREs:Climate Change 3 (2), 161-170.Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker and J.t. Maat (2013) Dynamic Adaptive PolicyPathways: A Method for Crafting RobustDecisions for a Deeply Uncertain World. GlobalEnvironmental Change 23 (2), 485–498.Hallegatte, S. (2009) Strategies to adapt to anuncertain climate change. Global EnvironmentalChange 19 (2), 240-247.Hallegatte, S., A. Shah, R. Lempert, C. Brownand S. Gill (2012) Investment Decision MakingUnder Deep Uncertainty Application to ClimateChange. Policy Research Working Paper. TheWorld Bank.Hanger, S., S. Pfenninger, M. Dreyfus and A. Patt(2013) Knowledge and information needs ofadaptation policy-makers: a European study.Regional Environmental Change 13 (1), 91-101.ICPR (2001) Conference of Rhine Ministers 2001.Rhine 2020. Program on the sustainabledevelopment of the Rhine. InternationalCommission for the Protection of the Rhine(ICPR), Koblenz, DE.ICPR (2004) Rhine Salmon 2020. InternationalCommission for the Protection of the Rhine(ICPR), Koblenz, DE.IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. McCarthy, J. J., O. F. Canziani, N. A.10 10
Adaptation Turning PointsLeary, D. J. Dokken and K. S. White, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK.Kwadijk, J. C. J., M. Haasnoot, J. P. M. Mulder,M. M. C. Hoogvliet, A. B. M. Jeuken, R. A. A. vander Krogt, N. G. C. van Oostrom, H. A.Schelfhout, E. H. van Velzen, H. van Waverenand M. J. M. de Wit (2010) Using adaptationtipping points to prepare for climate change andsea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change1 (5), 729-740.Lavery, S. and B. Donovan (2005) Flood riskmanagement in the Thames Estuary lookingahead 100 years. Philosophical Transactions ofthe Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical andEngineering Sciences 363 (1831), 1455-1474.Lempert, R. (2013) Scenarios that illuminatevulnerabilities and robust responses. ClimaticChange 117 (4), 627-646.Moriondo, M., M. Bindi, C. Fagarazzi, R. Ferriseand G. Trombi (2011) Framework for highresolutionclimate change impact assessment ongrapevines at a regional scale. RegionalEnvironmental Change 11 (3), 553-567.Offermans, A., M. Haasnoot and P. Valkering(2011) A method to explore social response forsustainable water management strategies underchanging conditions. Sustainable Development19 (5), 312-324.Parry, M., J. Lowe and C. Hanson (2009)Overshoot, adapt and recover. Nature 458(7242), 1102-1103.Ravetz, J. R. (2006) Post-Normal Science andthe complexity of transitions towardssustainability. Ecological Complexity 3 (4), 275-284.Reeder, T. and N. Ranger (2011) How do youadapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from theThames Estuary 2100 project. World ResourcesReport. Washington DC, US.Smith, M. S., L. Horrocks, A. Harvey and C.Hamilton (2011) Rethinking adaptation for a 4°Cworld. Philosophical Transactions of the RoyalSociety A: Mathematical, Physical andEngineering Sciences 369 (1934), 196-216.Termeer, C., A. Dewulf, H. van Rijswick, A. vanBuuren, D. Huitema, S. Meijerink, T. Rayner andM. Wiering (2011) The regional governance ofclimate adaptation: A framework for developinglegitimate, effective, and resilient governancearrangements. Climate law 2 (2), 159-179.Todd, C. D., K. D. Friedland, J. C. MacLean, N.Hazon and A. J. Jensen (2010) Getting into HotWater? Atlantic Salmon Responses to ClimateChange in Freshwater and Marine Environments.In Atlantic Salmon Ecology (eds Aas, Ø., S.Einum, A. Klemetsen and J. Skurdal), pp. 409-443. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, USA.van Vliet, M. T. H., W. H. P. Franssen, J. R.Yearsley, F. Ludwig, I. Haddeland, D. P.Lettenmaier and P. Kabat (2013) Global riverdischarge and water temperature under climatechange. Global Environmental Change 23 (2),450-464.Weaver, C. P., R. J. Lempert, C. Brown, J. A. Hall,D. Revell and D. Sarewitz (2013) Improving thecontribution of climate model information todecision making: the value and demands ofrobust decision frameworks. WileyInterdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 4 (1),39-60.Werners, S. E., M. Bindi, T. Bölscher, J. Hinkel,M. Moriondo, A. Oost, A. Patt, S. Pfenninger, E.van Slobbe and G. Trombi (2012) Adaptationturning points: Identification of impactthresholds, key risk factors and potential adaptiveresponses. Deliverable D2.3. Technical Report.MEDIATION Project, Wageningen, NL.Werners, S. E., S. Pfenninger, R. Swart, E.van Slobbe, M. Haasnoot and J. Kwakkel (2013a)Thresholds, tipping and turning points forsustainability under climate change. JournalCurrent Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5(Open Issue 2013), published online.10.1016/j.cosust.2013.1006.1005.Werners, S. E., R. Swart, A. Oost, E. van Slobbe,T. Bölscher, S. Pfenninger, G. Trombi and M.Moriondo (2013b) Turning points in climatechange adaptation. Ecology and Society(submitted to Special Feature ‘The Governanceof Adaptation’).to hans11
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Decision SupportMethods for Climate
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