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The Medium Term Fiscal Scenario has the following objectives: Improving the budgetary discipline in order to promote the macroeconomic balance; Improving the inter-sectoral and territorial allocation of resources; Predicting resources for PARPA implementation; Promoting the effectiveness and efficiency in the utilisation of resources; Support the allocation and decision making on the prioritisation of the allocation of resources; Provide credibility and legitimacy to the planning and budget programming process. For the projections from the sources of resources, the CFMP uses three basic macroeconomic assumptions: the inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and the exchange rate. Table able 14: 14: Mozambique Mozambique GDP GDP Pr Pr Projections Pr ojections (2004-2008) (2004-2008) 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 Gross Domestic Product Agriculture, Livestock and 7.2% 7.7% 7.4% 6.4% 6.4% Silviculture 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Fishing -3.8% 7.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Extractive Industry 215.7% 41.6% 9.0% 8.0% 9.0% Transforming Industry 9.6% 2.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Electricity and Water 10.7% 18.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Construction -2.0% 8.2% 8.0% 7.0% 8.0% Trade -0.6% 7.4% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Restaurants and Hotels 1.1% 0.8% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Transport and Communications 16.4% 13.2% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% Financial Services 0.9% 1.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Housing hire and Company Services 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Public Administration and Defence 9.0% 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Education 10.4% 17.2% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Health 7.6% 20.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Other Services 8.4% 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Import Duties 133.8% 137.0% 20.0% 0.5% 0.5% Source: MPD, 2005 85
Table 14 presents GDP growth rates in general and of some key sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, health, education, transport and communications, the transforming and extractive, and others. Despite a slight slow down in the last two years, the real GDP growth on the economy is expected at an average of 7% up to 2008 if mega projects are included, and at about 6.5 if these are excluded. These two approaches allow a more detailed analysis of the economy behaviour given the fact that large-scale undertakings have high growth rates at short term. 6.5 Fiscal Trends Revenues: The fiscal revenue remained relatively stable in the last six years throughout the period, the percentage of fiscal revenue of GDP was approximately 12% and the percentage of total revenue of total expenditure declined but went up again. Fiscal revenues have experienced a considerable increase in Mozambique as a result of the introduced fiscal reforms, modernisation of the fiscal administration, reduction of tax evasion, rationalisation of the concession of fiscal benefits. Currently, the fiscal revenue stands at 14.9% of GDP (2004). A gradual increase towards the 16-17% target in 2009 is expected (Table 15). Table able 15: 15: Mozambique Mozambique Gover Government Gover nment Revenue Revenue in in % % (1999-2004) (1999-2004) 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 Total revenues 29.9 31.7 31.0 26.5 24.8 Internal revenues 14.0 14.0 14.2 12.1 11.9 Current revenues 12.9 11.9 11.7 12.8 12.4 Capital revenues 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 External revenues 15.9 17.7 16.7 14.5 12.9 Donations 11.8 14.2 10.0 9.5 7.8 Grants Source: INE, 2005 4.0 3.5 6.7 5.0 5.1 The tax system suffers from various weaknesses that are not only due to administrative difficulties but also to the tax framework itself. The challenge is to design a system capable of increasing state resources, 86
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Regional Integration in Southern Af
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2 Impressum Published by Friedrich
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South Africa’s international trad
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Table of Contents Preface..........
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10 10 Concluding Concluding Remarks
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List of Tables Table 1: SADC Countr
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List of Abbreviations ACP Africa Ca
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SQAM Standards, Quality, Acreditati
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five-year period. The Government Pr
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Despite these substantial achieveme
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Labour Market Policy Framework In v
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This made it possible to bring down
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Domestic Domestic Savings Savings (
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Net Net Net Primar Primary Primar P
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Gender Gender Equality Equality and
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Lack Lack of of Economic Economic D
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The SADC ambitious goals and object
Page 35 and 36: Assegurar o desenvolvimento económ
Page 37 and 38: população vivendo abaixo da linha
Page 39 and 40: objectivos da integração regional
Page 41 and 42: linha com os compromissos assumidos
Page 44 and 45: 1 Introduction O n 25 June 1975, Mo
Page 46 and 47: 2 RISDP Goals and Objectives 2.1 Po
Page 48 and 49: 3. To ensure equitable and sustaina
Page 50: implementation of the Trade Protoco
Page 53 and 54: Liberalising exchange controls on c
Page 55 and 56: products will be duty-free tradable
Page 58 and 59: 4 Macroeconomic Stability Indicator
Page 60 and 61: 4.3 Current Account The SADC overal
Page 62: As illustrated in Table 5.5, in 199
Page 65 and 66: Keeping inflation at low and stable
Page 67 and 68: We will focus our analyses on the m
Page 69 and 70: Central Bank resources as one of th
Page 71 and 72: Table able 9: 9: Mozambique Mozambi
Page 73 and 74: Still in the context of fiscal poli
Page 75 and 76: Additionally, among the variables t
Page 77 and 78: 5.4 Macroeconomic Convergence Probl
Page 79 and 80: tend to increase ownership of long
Page 81 and 82: Despite this structure of the econo
Page 83 and 84: Figur Figure Figur e 2: 2: Composit
Page 85: Figur Figure Figur e 4: 4: Mozambiq
Page 89 and 90: Table able 16: 16: Gover Government
Page 91 and 92: Mozambique has made remarkable prog
Page 93 and 94: Real exchange rates may change due
Page 95 and 96: infrastructure will improve, the wo
Page 97 and 98: products only beginning this year (
Page 99 and 100: "two stage" transformation nature.
Page 101 and 102: Table able 19: 19: Partner Partner
Page 103 and 104: As for imports, the use by our impo
Page 105 and 106: force behind the build up of debt.
Page 107 and 108: AGOA African Growth and Opportunity
Page 109 and 110: kinds, which kept goods produced in
Page 111 and 112: egarded as the prime suspects for t
Page 113 and 114: 6.16 Impact of WTO Rules The open-e
Page 115 and 116: Creating structures to facilitate t
Page 117 and 118: 6.18 Analysis of Labour Market Tren
Page 119 and 120: Table able 23: 23: Companies Compan
Page 121 and 122: With the operationalisation of vari
Page 123 and 124: Cost-benefit analysis could help th
Page 125 and 126: GNP per Capita/GNI per Capita (in U
Page 127 and 128: 7.1 Analytical Tools Used for Socia
Page 129 and 130: The main challenges in the fight ag
Page 131 and 132: High education costs (despite the a
Page 133 and 134: Eskom and EDM (Mozambique Power Gen
Page 135 and 136: lowest HDI (0.379). This low level
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agricultural products leave conside
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side deficiencies, such as poor lev
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Where L represents labour allocatio
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Import penetration in this sector i
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ability to import duty free. A comp
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ates have been declining in real te
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progress and reforms might be neces
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may also occur when there is displa
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Static gains tend to focus on the i
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Constitution making, democratic ele
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monetary policies, financial market
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To meet SADC requirements and sell
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Mozambique (2004). Removing Obstacl
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162
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List of Tables Table 1: Type of Bus
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Table 48: % Have You Attended Works
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60% of Non-State Actors are from Ci
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In general the survey allows an ana
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actividade, são muito favoráveis.
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A constituição de parcerias entre
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Data Collections To facilitate the
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62.5% of the companies inquired and
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while four of those strengthen slig
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producers, only answers from Busine
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The regional integration in SADC wi
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Figur Figure Figur e 3 3 -T -Type -
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Table able 5 5 -T -Type -T ype of o
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Table able able 10 10 10 - - Shar S
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Table able 14 14 - - % % of of Main
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Table able 26 26 - - Annual Annual
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Table able 32 32 - - T TType T ype
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Table able 38 38 - - Par Par Partic
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Table able able 42 42 - - % % If If
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Table able 44 44 - - % % Most Most
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Table able 47 47 - - % % Is Is Regi
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216 Copies of this publication can
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