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Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005

Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005

Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005

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Hurricanes <strong>and</strong> their Effect on Coral ReefsHurricanes are classified by their w<strong>in</strong>d speed <strong>in</strong> the well-known Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 1storms have susta<strong>in</strong>ed w<strong>in</strong>d speeds greater than 64 knots (33 m/s) <strong>and</strong> generally cause only m<strong>in</strong>ordamage upon l<strong>and</strong>fall; Category 5 hurricane w<strong>in</strong>ds exceed 135 knots (69 m/s) <strong>and</strong> can devastatestructures with both w<strong>in</strong>ds <strong>and</strong> storm surge.Hurricane Category12345ImpactsW<strong>in</strong>d 64-82 knots, storm surge 1.0-1.6 m, no real damage tobuild<strong>in</strong>g structures, damage to treesW<strong>in</strong>d 83-95 knots, storm surge 1.7-2.5 m, some ro<strong>of</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> w<strong>in</strong>dowdamage, considerable damage to treesW<strong>in</strong>d 96-113 knots, storm surge 2.6-3.8 m, some build<strong>in</strong>g damage,large trees blown downW<strong>in</strong>d 114-135 knots, storm surge 3.9-5.5 m, complete removal <strong>of</strong>some ro<strong>of</strong>s, extensive w<strong>in</strong>dow damage, most trees blown downW<strong>in</strong>d 136+ knots, build<strong>in</strong>gs fall over, storm surge 5.6+ m,widespread loss <strong>of</strong> ro<strong>of</strong>s, some build<strong>in</strong>gs destroyed, all trees blowndown(a w<strong>in</strong>d speed <strong>of</strong> 100 knots = 185.2 km per hour = 51.4 metres per second)So Wh y w a s <strong>2005</strong> so Ac t i v e?Several factors are <strong>in</strong>volved. There was an extensive region across the equatorial Atlanticwhere the vertical w<strong>in</strong>d shear (the change <strong>in</strong> w<strong>in</strong>d speed with height) was unusually low.Vertical w<strong>in</strong>d shear <strong>in</strong>terferes with the vertical structure <strong>of</strong> a hurricane <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>hibits hurricaneformation. The rate <strong>of</strong> latent heat exchange (the transfer <strong>of</strong> water vapour energy from oceanto atmosphere) was 20% greater than the largest value <strong>in</strong> the previous 25-year period <strong>and</strong>,therefore, strongly favoured hurricane activity. Record warm surface temperatures acrossthe Gulf <strong>of</strong> Mexico, <strong>Caribbean</strong> <strong>and</strong> tropical Atlantic provided the energy source to form <strong>and</strong>susta<strong>in</strong> <strong>hurricanes</strong>. Sea-level pressure was exceptionally low across the <strong>Caribbean</strong>, aga<strong>in</strong>aid<strong>in</strong>g hurricane formation (5.).Many <strong>of</strong> these factors have been l<strong>in</strong>ked to climate-scale variabilities. Perhaps the most wellknown<strong>of</strong> these is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); however, dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>2005</strong> conditionswere ENSO neutral for most <strong>of</strong> the year. Other large-scale variabilities that have beenl<strong>in</strong>ked to observed oceanic <strong>and</strong> atmospheric conditions <strong>in</strong>clude the Atlantic Multi-decadalOscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation <strong>and</strong> the Madden-Julian (40-day) Oscillation. It wasthe juxtaposition <strong>and</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> these causal factors that likely <strong>in</strong>duced the record activitydur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>2005</strong> hurricane season. The effect <strong>of</strong> these was exacerbated by climate change, thelargest contributor to the warm temperatures <strong>in</strong> the tropical Atlantic. Of the 0.9°C tropicalAtlantic temperature anomaly (compared with a 1901-1970 basel<strong>in</strong>e), 0.2°C was attributableto the weak 2004-05 El Niño; less than 0.1°C was attributable to the Atlantic Multi-decadalOscillation; <strong>and</strong> most <strong>of</strong> the anomaly (0.45°C) was attributable to climate change (6.).A side-note to the extreme nature <strong>of</strong> the <strong>2005</strong> season is that none <strong>of</strong> the named stormstraversed Puerto Rico <strong>and</strong> the Lesser Antilles (W<strong>in</strong>dward <strong>and</strong> Leeward Isl<strong>and</strong>s). Despite the33

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