Final Program EXPRES 2012 - Conferences

Importance and Value of Predictive Approach forBoiler Operating Performance ImprovementM. Kljajić * , D. Gvozdenac * , S. Vukmirović **University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbiakljajicm@uns.ac.rs; gvozden@uns.ac.rs; srdjanvu@uns.ac.rsAbstract—Energy waste detection as a reactive approach isnot proper for high demanded, complex and intensiveenergy systems. Efficiency forecasting by analytic modelingis essentially preventive or proactive approach which leadsto avoiding inefficiency.A comprehensive insight and added awareness, whichpresented approach enables, in combination with expert andsoft computing assistance can locate, recommend andspecify opportunities for increasing energy efficiency ofboiler houses and reduce irrational energy use and relatedcosts.Presented analysis is led by finding possibilities how energyresources can be used wisely to secure more efficient finalenergy supply, to save money and limit environmentalimpacts. But the biggest problem and challenge are relatedto the stochastic nature and variety of influencing factors inenergy transformation process. In that context, reliableprediction of energy output variation for expectedinfluencing factors is very valuable.The paper presents one method for modeling, assessing andpredicting efficiency of boilers based on measured operatingperformance. The method implies the use of neural networkapproach to analyze and predict boiler efficiency. Neuralnetwork calculation reveals opportunities for efficiencyenhancement and makes good insight into influencingfactors onto boiler operating performance.The analysis is based on energy surveys for randomlyselected 65 boilers in the Province of Vojvodina carried outat over 50 sites covering the representative range ofindustrial, public and commercial users of steam and hotwater. The sample formed in such a manner coversapproximately 25% of all boilers in the Province ofVojvodina and provides reliability and relevance ofobtained results.Keywords: boiler efficiency; operating performance; neuralnets; modeling; predicting.I. INTRODUCTIONThe consumers’ area of Vojvodina can be consideredas a rounded entirety. It covers the area of 21,506 km 2 onwhich 2,031,992 (2003) inhabitants live satisfying theirenergy needs for life and work by using the followingprimary energies: natural gas, liquid oil derivatives, coals,heating wood, and agricultural wastes, primarily fromfarming production.Industrial, commercial and public companies andinstitutions are mostly run by old-fashioned energytechnologies and energy intensive productiontechnologies. Measuring and automation equipments arealso old-fashioned and often inoperative. In the last tenyears it is notable that there is a low level of investmentsin the energy sector. Inadequate maintenance additionallyaggravates existing low energy efficiency which isexpectable.Above facts indicate that energy supplying processesare accompanied by high specific energy consumptionper production/service unit and low energy efficiency.Not only is that it necessary to start again productioncapacities in some cases but also to reconstruct plants andinstallations. In order to improve energy efficiency, it isnecessary to make investments which will producebenefits and energy savings on the long run. Afterresuming production/service capacities and essentialrebuilding of plants and installations, investments inenergy efficiency improvement are essential.With right selection of plant, equipment and fuel,innovation of technology, better organization we canreduce costs and use resource and achieve higher qualityin the supplying process. The next topics provide insightin such assessment.A. Importance of energy efficiencyThere are numerous reasons for the desire to improveenergy efficiency in boiler operation but perhaps the mostcompelling one is wasted money for energy costs reflectedin the balance sheet bottom line. In many cases,improvements can be made for low or no cost involvingslight changes to the way a process or equipment isoperated to optimize their performance rather than topurchase expensive equipment.Saving energy has many benefits including:Reduced energy costs (increasing profits orreleasing resources for other activities)Improved environmental performance due toreduced carbon dioxide emissionsImproved competitiveness of products or servicesEnhanced public image with customers and otherstakeholdersReduced exposure to Government drivers such asthe Climate Change Levy.II.OBJECTIVE OF ANALYSISBecause of increasing fuel prices, industries, districtheating companies and public institutions that use steamor hot water boilers for heating, process or power95