Promoting Green Power in Canada - Centre for Human Settlements

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Promoting Green Power in Canada Pollution Probetheir total electricity consumption. Lake Erieoffshore potentials have been estimated tobe 144 TWh [WPTF 2002, p. 38], which isone-quarter of Canada’s or 100% of Ontario’sannual electricity demand. Offshore wind isgenerally seen as being more expensive, butcosts can be reduced through larger turbines,smaller towers and better resources (lessturbulence and more steady wind: 9 hours aday vs. a typical 6.4 hours onshore). Withlarge installed capacities, the price ofoffshore wind energy may fall to about 8¢/kWh [BWEA 2001]. In British Columbia,Vancouver company Sea Breeze Energy, Inc.is exploring the installation of 200 MW ofoffshore wind turbines south of VancouverIsland. Another project off the QueenCharlotte Islands is looking at a 700 MWwind farm.Solar PV: The installed capacity in Canadaof solar PV panels amounted to 8.5 MW in2001 (estimate), up from 1.0 MW in 1992.Most of this is installed as off-griddistributed energy generation. Some piloton-grid systems have been installed, buttotaled only 92 kW of installed capacitybetween 1995 and 1999. The annual growthof installed PV capacity has been about 20%[NRCan 2002e, p. 25]. A 2.5% householdpenetration rate (based on the theoreticalshare of “early adopters” and an initial 41%investment grant, gradually reduced to 4%towards the end) is deemed possible within20 years, based on the incentive program inMaryland, USA [CETC 2001, Annex I].Government subsidies are needed to achievethis, probably mainly from the municipallevel, would amount to about $4.5 millionin a city like Toronto, or $34 million for allof Canada (based on a population of 4million in Toronto and 30 million total).Installed capacities after 20 years would be225 MW, based on the same assumptions.The cost of solar power, starting from 30¢/kWh in 1997, is projected to halve by 2010,and to reach less than 5¢/kWh by 2030[ibid., p. IV].Small Hydro: The current capacity of allsmall hydroelectric facilities in Canada isabout 1,800 MW, at an annual production of9,000 GWh [NRCan 2002e, p. 9]. NaturalResources Canada has completed aninventory of Canadian small hydroelectricsites. It identified more than 3,600 sites witha technically feasible potential of about 9,000MW. However, only about 15 per cent of thattotal, approximately 1,300 MW, would beeconomically feasible with currentsocioeconomic conditions and technologies.If capital costs can be reduced by 10 to 15percent, which should be achievable withfuture technological improvements, anadditional 1,800 MW of economicallyexploitable capacity would be available[NRCan 2000]. According to theInternational Small-Hydro Atlas, more than10 GW of potential small hydro capacityexists in Canada for facilities larger than orequal to 1 MW (see Table 4.19), 44% of whichare projects of 10 MW generating capacity ormore. BC Hydro currently offers 5¢/kWh forelectricity from small hydro facilities, whichTable 4.19 — Potential Small Hydro Capacities in Canada in MW [IEA 2002]Province/ BC* AB SK MB ON QC PE NB NF NS NT YT TotalTerritoryPotential 1,385 182 202 395.5 1971 4,293 0 426.2 1,168 150 91.8 2 10,265.5>1MWPotential 51.1 2.7 0.2 0 353 321 2.5 8.3 31.3 8.5 0 0 770.4
Promoting Green Power in Canada Pollution Probeshould make many of the larger projectseconomically feasible [NRCan 2002d].Biomass energy: Three main sources ofbiomass can be used for electricityproduction: energy crops (especiallyswitchgrass), agricultural waste and woodresidues. All of these fuels could be importantfor Canada’s energy portfolio. In the absenceof official estimates of electricity generationpotentials from biomass, an estimate hasbeen made for this study based on theassumptions outlined in Appendix C. Theresult of these calculations is that 1.5% ofCanada’s annual electricity demand could becovered by energy crops, 0.6% from currentlyunused wood residues (this potential mayhave decreased since the available woodresidue potentials were assessed in 1999),and 5.3% (32 TWh, based on Appendix C)from agricultural waste. 40 These figuresrepresent a generation capacity of more than1,502 MW for forest residues and energycrops, and 3,672 MW for agricultural waste,in addition to existing capacities. In 1999,the Canadian pulp and paper industry,together with independent power producers,produced important amounts of electricityfrom wood wastes and spent pulping liquor,much of which was used internally byindustry [NRCan 2002e, p. 7]. Thegeneration capacity of the pulp and paperindustry amounts to 1,500 MW, that ofindependent power producers to 128 MW,and the electricity production of this sectorwas reported as 6,393 GWh 41 for 1999 [ibid.,p. 13]. There is also some potential forelectricity production from municipal waste,with a potential doubling of currentelectricity production from municipal wasteincineration (747 GWh/a) [p. 16]. Table4.20 provides an overview of the assessmentin Appendix C.Landfill gas: Canadian electricity productionfrom landfill gas (currently implemented at8 sites) is 85.3 MW. This number could bedoubled within the next five years if producerscould obtain a price of 6–7¢/kWh, as mostlarger landfills already have gas capturingsystems installed, but many still flare the gasinstead of producing electricity or processheat. Smaller landfills would only becomeeconomical with higher per-kWh prices (upto 12¢/kWh) [EC 2002a]. Emissions fromthe 10,000 Canadian landfills have beenestimated to be 25 Mt of CO 2equivalent,about 25% of which is either flared or usedfor electricity production. The total (but noteconomically feasible) potential can thus beestimated to be four times current use, oreight times the electricity generating capacity,given that only about half the landfill gascurrently captured is used for electricityproduction [EC 2002a].Table 4.20 — Potential Electricity Production from Biomass in Canada, in GWh(based on [CFS 1999] and Appendix C)Province BC AB SK MB ON QC Atlantic CanadaProv.Forest Residues 1,470 630 35 14 350 1,190 210 3,890Switchgrass* - 960 960 3,090 3,090 960 210 9,270Agricultural waste 202 8,545 12,087 4,312 4,044 2,733 245 32,168TOTAL 1,672 10,135 13,082 7,416 7,484 4,883 665 45,328* Roughly one third of the total potential for ON and MB each, and another third shared between the otherProvinces117
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