Promoting Green Power in Canada - Centre for Human Settlements

Promoting Green Power in Canada Pollution ProbeFigure 4.22 — Canadian Hydro Resources by Province [NRCan 2002e, p. 8]will also deliver most electricity during peaktimedaylight hours, especially duringsummer peak demand for air conditioning.Provinces with a significant share of largehydro resources in their energy mix, such asQuébec, BC and Manitoba, are in the bestposition to add intermittent sources to theirgrid as power generation from these sourcesthen stretches the hydro resources, theoutput of which can be reduced asrenewable resources produce extra power(see Figure 4.22). Other provinces, such asAlberta or Ontario, which have smallerhydro resources, may have to balancerenewable power production with naturalgas plants. Once renewable power obtains alarger market share and produces 10% ormore of the electricity demand in a province,these issues require planning and can alsolimit the capacity to accommodateintermittent sources.Whereas an annual increase of more than1% of new generation seems technicallypossible based on the considerations in theprevious section, and given that such speedydeployment of renewables has not beenobserved in other countries so far, asomewhat lower RPS goal is suggested here.It seems feasible, for example, compared torecent developments in Texas or Germany,and if the political will and support fromboth the Provinces and the utility sector exist,to achieve an annual growth of 1,000 MW ofinstalled capacity, 45 which would result in anadditional 3.5 TWh of electricity per year atan average capacity factor of 40% forrenewables (assuming that a large share ofnewly added capacity will be wind power).The long-term goal should be to make up forthe annual 1.2% increase in electricity demandonly with renewables, which would require adoubling of the proposed annual addedgeneration capacity. Allowing a lower capacityincrease in the first year and a doubling after2010, the resulting RPS percentages Canadacould achieve under this scenario are givenin Table 4.23.Starting with a non-large hydro renewablesshare of 2.8% and assuming the RPS wouldstart becoming effective in 2004, 5.8% couldbe achieved by 2010 and 13.5% by 2020. Thisassumes an annual growth of 0.5% of totalgeneration (1% after 2010), very much in linewith programs in other countries, and muchmore conservative than the 8% (2010) RPSproposed by the Ontario Wind Power TaskForce, which is based on an annual 1%increase [WPTF 2002, p. 33]. The final RPS of13.5% is also very much in line with the goal122