Promoting Green Power in Canada - Centre for Human Settlements

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Promoting Green Power in Canada Pollution ProbeWave energy: High potentials for waveenergy exist along both coasts. BC Hydro isdeveloping the first wave energy project onVancouver Island at a pilot stage (4 MW).Two technologies (onshore and off shore)are being tested, and plans have been madeto expand the plant to 100 MW over thecoming years if the technology workssuccessfully. The theoretical onshorepotential on Vancouver Island, based on thelength of the coastline and wave heights, hasbeen estimated to be about 8,000 MW (25TWh), and about the same on the QueenCharlotte Islands. 42 Currently, two suitablesites have been identified on VancouverIsland, where 400–500 MW of wave powerunits could be installed. Whereas theelectricity generation cost for the BC pilotproject will be 8¢/kWh, a larger projectcould achieve prices as low as 4.5¢/kWh. Thepotential at the East Coast is larger, mainlyalong the coasts of Labrador and NovaScotia. Wave heights are about 2.2m at theWest Coast, and can be as high as 2.5m onthe Labrador coast and 1.7m in Nova Scotia.The overall East Coast onshore capacity canbe estimated to be twice as much as theWestern resources [PT 2002]. Offshoreresources are even larger, but currently arealso more expensive.Tidal barrage: The Canadian Annapolistidal power plant in the Bay of Fundy,between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick,was built in one of the few places in theworld where tides are in the order of 10metres, reaching up to even 16 metres. Theplant, a low-head demonstration project, hasa nameplate capacity of 20 MW. Additionalpotential for tidal power in Canada exists inseveral locations, including four sites at theBC coast [TRI 2002]. Three sites in the Bay ofFundy are considered to have the besteconomic potential, with a total capacity of8,500 MW [NRCan 2002c, p. 111]. For twoconsidered projects (Cumberland and MinasBasins), the electricity generation cost wasestimated to be between 4.9 and 7.6¢/kWh in1993, including transmission and re-timing(pumped storage) cost [WEC 1993, p. 10].There are problems with fish mortality andother ecological impacts in connection withtidal barrage concepts, which can be reducedusing offshore plants, but probably makethis technology the least environmentallydesired option among ocean energytechnologies.Tidal current: The world’s first tidal currentdemonstration project was recently installedin Scotland on September 13, 2002. The 150kW turbine, supported by the Britishgovernment, will be tested for one year andis situated at Yell Sound in the North ofScotland [EREN 2002(3)]. Its ecologicalimpacts would be smaller than those of tidalbarrages, and tidal current resources areamong the best in the world along the BCcoast. The estimated mean annualexploitable energy for the BC coast rangesfrom 2.7 TWh (1,550 MW installed at 20%capacity factor) for large scale installationswith existing technology to about 20 TWh(7,600 MW installed at 30% capacity factor)with realistic assumptions about near futuretechnology.Present tidal current energy generation costs,using demonstrated technology, appear to becompetitive with other green energy sources,at 11¢/kWh for a large site (800 MWinstalled capacity and 1.4 TWh/year). Thesecosts assume a conservative capacity factor of20% and a maximum current speed of 3.5m/s. Future energy costs are expected todecrease considerably as both existing andnew technologies are developed over thenext few years. Assuming that maximumcurrents larger than 3.5 m/s can be exploitedand present design developments continue,it is estimated that future tidal current energycosts between 5¢/kWh and 7¢/kWh areachievable. No detailed assessment has beendone for Canada’s east coast, but a similarpotential may exist there, especially alongthe Labrador coast, from which power lineslead south. Assuming 20 TWh for each coastat a 30% capacity factor, this would result in118
Promoting Green Power in Canada Pollution Probean overall plant capacity of about 15,000MW. Two Canadian companies (Blue Energyand Clean Current, both in BC) promotetidal stream technologies [TRI 2002].Geothermal: There are good geothermalenergy resources in British Columbia. NorthPacific Geopower Corporation is currentlyexploring a 200 MW geothermal site northof Vancouver, BC, which could be operationalby 2005. The field currently being exploredis estimated to have a maximum potential of1,000–1,500 MW. There are 5–6 geothermalfields that could be exploited with today’stechnology, and possibly an even greaterpotential exists with improved technologiesin the future. No drilling has so far beenundertaken to assess the geothermalpotential in BC, but field studies indicatethat all fields together might yield as muchas 5,000 MW of plant capacity. Geothermalplants would be profitable at electricityprices of as little as 6¢/kWh [NPGC 2002].Based on the information on each technologyprovided above, Table 4.21 lists potentiallyachievable installed capacities in Canada, inthe author’s judgment. The potentialssuggested in this scenario can be used toestimate a technically feasible nationalRenewable Portfolio Standard. Table 4.22compares projected electricity consumptionwith the possible generation fromrenewables for today, 2010 and 2020, basedon the capacity factors in Table 4.21.Figure 4.21 shows the renewable powerpotentials for electricity production inCanada by Province. This map does notshow additional offshore wind or wavepotentials or solar PV, nor does it take intoTable 4.21 — Renewable Electricity Potentials in Canada (in MW)Energy Source Overall Current Achievable Achievable CapacityCapacity Capacity by 2010 by 2020 FactorsOnshore Wind > 28,000 200 5,000 15,000 35%Solar PV > consumption 8.5 100 225 14%Small hydro 11,000 1,800 6,000 11,000 60%Biomass 3,130 1,628 3 2,500 3,000 80%(forestry residues& energy crops)Biomass 3,672 ~0 1,500 3,000 80%(agriculturalresidues)Landfill gas ~700 85.3 170 250 90%Wave 48,000 4 1 400 2,500 35%(onshore only)Tidal barrage > 8,500 20 3,000 8,500 30%Tidal stream 15,000 0 100 1,000 30%Geothermal 5,000 0 600 1,500 95%Total capacity > consumption 3,746 19,370 45,975Total generation 2 > consumption 22/17 4 91 193in TWh1Capacity still under development (BC Hydro), scheduled to be operational in 2004 only2Total capacity x capacity factor x 8,760 hours per year31,500 MW internal use of pulp and paper industry, 128 MW independent power producers4The lower number accommodates the reported low figures for electricity output from biomass generationplants119
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