The Rimba Raya Biodiversity Reserve REDD Project

Without project activities are displaced to non-­‐peatlandareas outside the project boundary that haveaboveground carbon stocks below a certain threshold; orWithout project activities are displaced to peatland areasoutside the project boundary with aboveground carbonstocks below a certain threshold and belowground carbonstocks depleted at least five years prior to the start ofproject activities.subtracting the estimated emissions due to leakage fromnet avoided emissions.Leakage EstimateThe methodology utilized to estimate leakage will include thefollowing four modules:If project implementation is expected to result in thedisplacement of economic activities that result in land use and/orland cover changes outside the project boundary, the increase inemissions are estimated utilizing a four-­‐step process:Activity shifting – Planned deforestationActivity shifting – Unplanned deforestation (if necessary)Market effectsBiomass extractionFirst, information on the total area of existing plantationsoperated by the displaced entity is collected andseparated into plantations on peat and plantations onnon-­‐peat.Second, the expected increase in area of new plantationsfor the specific entity displaced as a result of projectactivity is estimated from information about factorsinfluencing plantation establishment trends (e.g.,proportion of current plantations on peat; number of newpermits assigned to the displaced entity over the past 5 to10 years, etc.).Third, the GHG emissions from land use/cover changeattributable to the displaced entity are estimated as thesum of emissions associated with peat burning for landclearing, peat drainage, and changes in carbon stocks forland clearing.Finally, the net reduction in GHG emissions fromdeforestation and degradation are calculated byNon-­‐Permanence Analysis and Buffer DeterminationBoth general and project-­‐type specific risks fit into the “low” riskcategory corresponding with a 10% non-­‐permanence riskwithholding buffer. This section follows the guidelines of the VCSTool for AFOLU Non-­‐Permanence Analysis and BufferDetermination and was conducted by Forest Carbon. It describesgeneral and project-­‐type specific risk factors and ratings.224