Dec 2010 - South Worcestershire Development Plan

5.2 Explanation and Analysis of Housing TrajectoryThe housing trajectory uses the net housing completion figures from 1 st April 2001 to31 st March 2010. Completions are shown on the trajectory in purple. A prediction for thecurrent monitoring year and following four years are shown in green; this incorporatesall outstanding Local Plan allocations without permission (500 units) and sites withplanning permission (987 units) (Housing Land Availability Report, 2010).From 2014 - 2015 allocations from the emerging SWDP shown (in orange). The rate ofcompletions shown reflects the need to meet the emerging RSS (Phase II Revision)Preferred Options (December 2007) with undersupply since 2006 - 07 added. If thepredicted level of completions shown in the housing trajectory takes place WychavonDistrict Council will meet the emerging RSS target of 9,100 homes.5.3 Worcester’s growth outside the administrative boundary of Worcester CityThis year’s Annual Monitoring Report has also addressed, jointly with Wychavon andMalvern Hills, the element of Worcester growth to be located outside but adjacent to thecity boundary. This has not been included in any of the three authorities’ five year landsupply calculations. One of the purposes of the three Local Planning Authoritiesworking together on the SWDP is to determine the most appropriate location(s) to meetthe RSS Preferred Options target of 7,300 dwellings. For Worcester growth beyond theCity’s boundary, the SWJCS Preferred Options set out a number of broad locations anddevelopers have clearly demonstrated a willingness to bring development forward inthese areas. Due to uncertainty regarding the delivery of strategic infrastructure it isconsidered premature to include a specific 5 year housing land supply calculation forthe 7,300 dwellings at this stage. The situation will be reviewed at the end of themonitoring period with the intention of producing a meaningful calculation for next year’sAMR.Figure 42: Worcester City housing growth trajectory1000900875 875 875 875800Dwellings700600500400600 600 600 600 600300200160 160 160 160 16010002012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-26Potential phasing of Worcester City growth (annualised)197