MATELAN Research - ISRA VISION AG

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ISRA VISION In-Depth Report Automotive still on the expansion trail Glass market to show more moderate growth Metal benefiting from relocation of capacities Paper and pulp still off peak levels Pharma shows high growth from BRIC countries and new regulatory requirements Semiconductors growing at solid rate again - 14 - Going forward we see the automotive industry taking the dynamic development, which was predominantly driven by the four BRIC countries as well as the US market, into 2011 and (to a slightly lesser extent) 2012, though some European markets have cooled down somewhat. Investment spending appears to continue, mainly in order to serve upcoming demand in Asia, in particular China. In the flat glass industry, China accounts for approximately 50% of global flat glass production, followed by Europe (16% in 2009) and the US (8% in 2009). In 2010, sales showed declines in some instances in building products, automotive as well as speciality glass. In 2011, the building sector now shows a return to modest growth, the solar business is expected to continue growing as are the automotive (see above) and display businesses. In fact, the glass market is expected to grow on average by 6% through 2014. However, 2012 might be slightly below that rate and the industry might not come back to pre-crisis production levels before 2013. We would thus expect to see investments in machine vision systems rather as a result of productivity measures than further capacity expansions. The metal industry showed double-digit growth rates in all steel producing countries in 2010. Aluminium production increased mainly as a result of new smelters started and restarted, in particular in China but also Qatar and the UAE. Copper production remained roughly stable. Going forward, production might fall back again, leading to a lower utilisation of capacities. Still, there is a trend to relocate capacities to higher growth regions, which should be favourable for machine vision companies. The production of paper and pulp has recovered to some extent from the dramatic decline in 2009 but is still 8-10% short of the pre-crisis levels. The year 2011 is expected to show further progress in a mid-single digit rate. The industry should thus see its pre-crisis levels by 2012/13. Going forward, we would thus expect investment activity to accelerate moderately. The world pharmaceutical market was worth an estimated EUR597bn in 2010, with North America accounting for a 42% share, well ahead of Europe (29%) and Japan (11%). Rapid growth is experienced in particular in emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India. China and Brazil showed growth rates of more than 20% compared with an average rate of 1.8% in the five major European markets and 3.3% for the US market. Increasing regulatory requirements in many countries that aim at securing drug safety despite increasingly globalized supply chains should additionally fuel investment spending in track and tracing solutions. The European Parliament, for example, has adopted a directive against falsified medicine in February 2011, which must be implemented into national law until 2013. In the semiconductor industry, all major product categories showed doubledigit growth rates in 2010. With a 31.8% increase compared to the crisis year 2009, the industry recorded a record number of global chip sales last year. With 54% of sales the Asia/Pacific region is the largest market for semiconductors. For 2011, a moderate single digit growth is expected, though the year has started with double-digit growth. Silicon wafers showed a slightly lower growth (45%) compared to chips in 2010 so that solid demand (at a more modest post-recovery rate) is expected for 2011. The global electric and electronic industry followed the recovery of the semiconductor and silicon wafer industry in 2010 and has compensated the losses during the global crisis within a year. For 2011, the world market is expected to grow by 7%, with the most dynamic development in the emerging markets. 2012 should come in slightly below this rate.
ISRA VISION In-Depth Report Automotive, electrical and pharma could become main drivers of future growth, German companies show strong positioning in these industries Inspections systems for discrete items still the most important application Different products used for different fields of application Symbol reading and discrete inspection show highest growth rates in 2010 - 15 - On the back of current market developments at the major customers we would expect further growth for the European machine vision industry to be fuelled in particular from the important segments, automotive and electrical, but also pharma and medical. Looking at the German machine vision companies, we find them over-proportionately strong positioned in particular in the automotive but also the pharma industries, which should give them an edge over their European competitors. It should also be noted that some machine vision companies are able to generate high growth in industries that are growing more moderately as a result of for example their market positioning or their product offering. DISCRETE INSPECTION SYSTEMS REMAIN KEY APPLICATION The applications of machine vision technology are as multifaceted as the customer industries that use them. The most important applications can be found in inspection, i.e. the inspection of discrete items and the inspection of continuous materials, such as paper, plastic films or sheet metal, also known as “web inspection”. Discrete systems accounted for 46.5% of all vision applications in 2010. Together, both applications came to 59.5%. Metrology is the second most important field of application. Here 3D metrology alone accounts for 13% out of a total of 16%. Separating the two product categories of vision systems, we find that the distribution of applications varies significantly. Inspection systems are clearly the most important application for more sophisticated application-specific and configurable systems. Compact systems, such as smart cameras and vision sensors, are more often used in metrology as well as in character recognition, part recognition and symbol reading. In terms of growth, we find the highest rate (49%) in symbol reading, i.e. bar codes & dot-matrix codes. Growth here is particularly driven by the industries’ increased efforts to make their supply and value added chains consistently traceable. Given that regulations across the globe increasingly require this, we expect their growth to remain above average. Discrete inspection systems and 2D metrology also grew over-proportionately in 2010. The strong development of others, might point at strong innovation, though areas widely related to inspection or measuring tasks might be included in here. Market shares and growth rates by applications 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: EMVA Inspection (discrete) Inspection (continuous) Metrology Symbol reading Guidance Character recognition Part recognition 2009 2010 Growth (r.s.) Other 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100%
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